Mind Matters Natural and Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis

CategoryEconomics

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Person uses laptop interacting with AI virtual assistant. AI head graphic overlay laptop keyboard. Concept of AI prompt engineering, LLM. Person types on keyboard to communicate with virtual

Why LLMs Are Not Boosting Productivity

If LLMs were as reliably useful as economist Tyler Cowen alleges, businesses would be using them to generate profits faster than LLMs generate text. They aren’t.
So far, AI is dragging down economic growth by diverting so much human talent and natural resources away from more productive uses. Read More ›
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Man working with stock market data.

Sloppy Science is a Statistical Sin

Evidence of sloppy science encourages readers to wonder if the entire research project is compromised
Journals should require authors to make their data available online before publication and encourage others to try to replicate the research they publish. Read More ›
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Terahertz and optical wireless communication towers in a futuristic city with softwaredefined networking control centers

COSM: Ethernet Inventor Asks, Are We Ready for New IT Technology?

Bob Metcalfe will talk about new technologies like electromagnetic waves from the “dead zone” of the spectrum that are slowly becoming economically viable
Metcalfe’s Law of IT growth begins with the fact that one fax machine — for example — is useless. Two help a bit but millions of them made a difference. Read More ›
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Egg standing at the edge of the table. 3D illustration

The Government-Debt Tipping Point Is Nonsense

There are serious problems with the economics paper by Reinhart and Rogoff, whose recommendations were widely followed
Reinhart/Rogoff’s dismissal of criticism of their deeply flawed study as “academic kerfuffle” is unconscionably cavalier. Read More ›
silhouette form of bull and bear on technical financial graph

How can someone who fails be faulted when everyone else is failing?

Market turbulence can cause endowment fund managers to travel with the herd — sacrifice returns in order to reduce annual volatility
The current, widely-favored 60/40 strategy has little or nothing to recommend it beyond the fact that it is what everyone else is doing. Read More ›
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Mad biracial woman frustrated by computer operational problems

What We Can Learn From the Crowdstrike Fiasco

A lot of things that we try to do to remove risk actually make the problem worse — but also less visible
Saving effort in the short term by running these risks is a decision that should be made with full knowledge of how near-term decisions affect long-term risks. Read More ›
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Beautiful unicorn in a magical forest - digital illustration

Tech Industry: Are the Unicorns an Endangered Species?

The canaries are cheeping loudly that new tech startup funding is fading
How serious the current downturn will be, they say, depends on how long the current AI bubble lasts. Winter always comes, just not when many of us expect it. Read More ›
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large language models Concept illustration Ai

LLMs Can’t Be Trusted for Financial Advice

The LLM responses demonstrated that they do not have the common sense needed to recognize when their answers are obviously wrong
It takes an experienced financial planner to distinguish between good and bad advice, so clients may as well skip the LLMs and go to the knowledgeable human. Read More ›
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Man paying at the self-service counter entering credit card pin code for security password in credit card swipe machine. shopping time

Why Are Some Retail Stores Ditching Self-Checkout?

Rising theft rates are a key motivator but other problems have arisen, like preventing alcohol sales to minors
Brand marketing strategist Melinda Deines points to a study that shows that self-checkouts cause shoppers to view theft differently. Read More ›
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Businessman checking stock market data.

Economics Assumes Human Beings Have Free Will

Every waking moment we humans live out a constant fact underlying all economic science: we act.

“Free will denial is a cornerstone of materialist–determinist ideology,” wrote Dr. Michael Egnor here in February 2024. The deniers say we are “purely physical machines, meat robots.” Dr. Egnor cited well-known people who have prominently denied humans have free will. Dr. Egnor challenged deniers to demonstrate through their own actions that they truly have no free will. They will fail for Dr. Egnor’s stated reasons, plus one more: economics. The science of economics describes the behaviors of individual humans as they pursue their lives. Economics has discovered certainties, such as the Law of Supply and Demand, that describe how people produce, consume, trade, save, invest, and anticipate the future. Economics succeeds because it grasps certain universal truths about free-will, non-material, Read More ›

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Businessman holding tablet and showing holographic graphs and stock market statistics gain profits. Concept of growth planning and business strategy. Display of good economy form digital screen.

Retracted Paper Is a Compelling Case for Reform

The credibility of science is being undermined by misuse of the tools created by scientists. Here's an example from an economics paper I was asked to comment on
In my book Distrust (Oxford 2023), I recommend that journals not publish data-driven research without public access to nonconfidential data and methods used. Read More ›
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Magazines

How Data Can Appear in Science Papers — Out of Thin Air!

At Retraction Watch, Gary Smith explains how one author team apparently copy pasted missing data about green innovation in various countries

Recently, Retraction Watch, a site that helps keeps science honest, noted some statistical peculiarities about a paper last September in the Journal of Clean Energy, “Green innovations and patents in OECD countries.” The site was tipped off by a PhD student in economics that “For several countries, observations for some of the variables the study tracked were completely absent.” But that wasn’t the big surprise. The big surprise was when the student wrote to one of the authors: In email correspondence seen by Retraction Watch and a follow-up Zoom call, [Almas] Heshmati told the student he had used Excel’s autofill function to mend the data. He had marked anywhere from two to four observations before or after the missing values Read More ›

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Corporate business people working in busy marketing office space, planning strategy in books and reading email on laptop at work. Businessman, businesswoman and workers at startup advertising company

Full-Time: Why We Need More Creative Productivity, Not Less

A new book shows how we lost the meaning of work and the ways we can get back on track.
Bahnsen subscribes to the classical view of economics that prizes production over consumption. Read More ›
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Money making machine printing fake counterfeit dollar bills. Generative AI.

If Information Is Wealth, Are Deepfakes a Form of Counterfeiting?

The current tech media overdose on panic over deepfakes. They could be drowning out practical ways of fighting back
To whatever extent digital information is a form of wealth, its digital producers must always fight counterfeiters — just as currency issuers must do. Read More ›
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Skull Assorted Poison Bottles

Artists Strike Back!: New Tool “Poisons” Images Pirated by AI

Nightshade, developed by University of Chicago computer science prof Ben Zhao, makes the AI generator keep giving you a cat when you ask for a dog
Overall, Nightshade may prove more useful than lawsuits to artists. It is embedded in pixels, visible only to AI, not to humans. Read More ›
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Asian software developers coding at office with multiple screens. Programmer development concept. Photo generative AI

Industry Pro: No, AI Is NOT Driving the Mass Big Tech Layoffs!

“It may explain the loss of some content generation and customer support positions — but doesn’t explain the layoffs of software developers.”
Semi- but not-fully capable AI systems allow us to be lazy in some respects, but demand that we be less lazy in others. Read More ›
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AI robot sitting at the desk in the office and working on personal computer

Is New AI Driving the Mass Big Tech layoffs?

The jury’s out on whether that’s really what’s happening and, if so, whether it will improve profitability
The Big Tech companies may see replacing workers with AI as only natural. After all, that’s the future their executives were told from childhood to expect. Read More ›
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Concept of propaganda and fake news, TV addiction. Sheepd watching TV in dark room. Politicians manipulate the population.

What Will the New Media Landscape Look Like?

Billionaires have been “scooping up” publishers in recent years but that has not stopped the bleed of red ink
Substack, where journalists curate their own writing for their subscribers, pay-to-play talk radio, and YouTube video subscriptions are the way of the future. Read More ›
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AI chatbot robot assistant sitting at desk using computer as artificial intelligence. Business concept. AI generated

What AI Will Probably Really Do to White Collar Businesses

The tech media are full of scare stories but we can look at what happened when advanced technology hit blue collar industries as a guide
Let’s not count the humans out too soon. The real question is, are we doing anything that is unique, that could not just be replaced by a machine? Read More ›