^CategoryBusiness and Finance

^{Type
post

Author
Jeffrey Funk
Date
September 15, 2023

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance}

When will the AI-driven Productivity Revolution Begin?

_{Big corporations are slow to embrace AI tech} _{Jeffrey Funk

September 15, 2023

7

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance}

Just a few months ago professors and big consulting firms were saying that Generative AI will increase the rate of productivity growth and raise unemployment, thus frightening some into calling for a pause in AI development. For instance, “Tegmark’s Future of Life Institute spearheaded an open letter calling for a pause in training the most powerful AI systems until researchers adopt a shared set of safety standards. Its 33,000 signatories include Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Yoshua Bengio, a computer scientist who won the Turing Prize for his pioneering work in AI. But now, a different message is appearing. A title from a WSJ article is: “AI Startup Buzz Is Facing a Reality Check,” because of declining usage Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
March 15, 2023

Categorized
Business and Finance

Tagged
Banking, Bonds, Income, Interest rates, Investment, Principal, Silicon Valley, SVB}

Aren’t US Treasury Bonds Supposed to be Safe?

_{How can you lose money selling treasury bonds?} _{Jonathan Bartlett

March 15, 2023

3

Business and Finance}

For context, read Bartlett’s two previous articles on the fall of SVB and interest rates. Some people are confused as to how you can lose money selling treasury bonds, since they are supposed to be “safe” assets (the government is not expected to default on its loans, and, if it does, the economy probably has bigger problems). Economist Bob Murphy put together a great explainer thread on Twitter, which I will largely follow here. Let’s say that there is an asset that always yields a 1% return every year on however much you have invested, but you never get the principal back except by selling it to someone else. Let us call this asset ABC, and let us say that it is Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
March 14, 2023

Categorized
Business and Finance

Tagged
Banking, capitalism, economy, Finance, Interest rates, Invesment, Investors, Silicon Valley}

Why Did the Tech Bubble Correspond with Low Interest Rates?

_{Ultimately, our economy’s deeper problems aren’t so much a result of “money” as they are bad allocations of resources.} _{Jonathan Bartlett

March 14, 2023

4

Business and Finance}

For context, read Bartlett’s article explaining the fall of SVB here. I wanted to make a quick note about why tech bubbles tend to correspond with low interest rate environments. Interest rates essentially dictate how long someone can wait before they need to produce something of real value. In a 20% interest rate environment, it will be evident really quickly if you are failing to produce something of value. Since essentially 1/5 of your capital disappears each year, if you aren’t doing something that will generate real profits quickly, you are sunk. You can’t paper over problems with more borrowing because the cost of that borrowing is so high. Additionally, in such an environment, the payoffs for investment need to be large Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
March 13, 2023

Categorized
Business and Finance

Tagged
Assets, Banking, Debt, Investors, Loan, Silicon Valley}

What’s Going on at Silicon Valley Bank?

_{The bank's failure is making a lot of people nervous about their money} _{Jonathan Bartlett

March 13, 2023

5

Business and Finance}

Many people awoke this morning to news of a bank that suddenly collapsed – Silicon Valley Bank, or SVB. While information is still developing, I thought I would provide some background information on what is known so far. SVB is the go-to bank for Silicon Valley startups. Over the last few years, the tech bubble has been growing and growing and growing, focused especially around Silicon Valley. That meant a lot of banking was happening, and it was happening with SVB. That is where the various companies put their deposits. How does a bank make money? By lending out deposits. In 2021, at the height of the tech bubble (and, not coincidentally, at a historically low-interest rate environment). The bank did what most banks do Read More ›

tv studio camera recording male reporter or anchorman. Live broadcasting

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
January 4, 2023

Categorized
Arts & Culture, Business and Finance, Politics

Tagged
Alex Weprin, Andy Matrix, Caitlin Huston, Comic books decline, Don Surber, George Winslow, Hollywood decline (2022), Samba TV’s State of Viewership report, Television viewership decline, Woke culture, Woke culture and arts decline}

Trend: Steeper Decline in TV, Hollywood — and Comic Books

_{It’s as if the public has simply lost the sense that the media represent the average watcher or reader — and that’s probably true in many cases} _{News

January 4, 2023

5

Arts & Culture, Business and Finance, Politics}

We’ve already noted the significant decline in circulation and collapse of trust in major newspapers (online or in print). But 2022 reported steep declines in other media as well. From the entertainment industry’s Variety mag, we learn that while there were some winners in TV — ESPN, crime shows, and digi-nets — most TV of all types continued to see losses, many of them double-digit losses. As commentator Don Surber noted, “The drop in viewers came despite an Olympics, a popular war and a federal election.” The drop in viewers is reflected in an overall drop in revenue, projected to continue. A highlight from Samba TV’s State of Viewership report: Gen Z and millennials are driving the shift away from Read More ›

online payments. Girl holds a smartphone and a credit card. European woman shopping online. Beautiful young woman using a credit card and mobile phone for online shopping.

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
December 22, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship

Tagged
Colin Wright, David Sacks, David Sacks (on emerging social credit system), Elon Musk, Online payment companies, PayPal banning users, PayPal founders, Peter Thiel, Rupa Subramanya, Southern Poverty Law Center, Toby Young}

PayPal Today Betrays Its Founders’ Vision for Democratizing Money

_{The payments processor, famously, now often drops customers for what appear to be political reasons, as Indian economist Rupa Subramanya explains} _{News

December 22, 2022

5

Business and Finance, Censorship}

Earlier this year, we wrote about PayPal starting to “fine” users for “misinformation” and wrongthink. While there is certainly misinformation out there, the alarming Disinformation Governance Board proposal and the Twitter files revelations underline the limits of what Big Government, Big Tech, or Big Business can do beyond simply imposing an official opinion. Of course, the official opinion may be based on a faulty understanding of the problem. The banned individuals may merely be better informed. PayPal, famously, now often drops customers for what appear to be political reasons, as Indian economist Rupa Subramanya explains: One by one, they go to start their business day only to find a baffling message from their payments app informing them: “You can no Read More ›

Man is using laptop with black keys, Social media and social networking. Marketing concept

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
December 19, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media

Tagged
Babylon Bee on Twitter, Doxxing on Twitter, Elon Musk and Twitter takeover, Featured, Mastodon, Twitter and child porn}

Musk’s Tyrannical Turn With Twitter

_{While the political bias is gone, the ego bias seems to have just begun} _{Jonathan Bartlett

December 19, 2022

4

Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media}

I was hopeful when Elon Musk took control of Twitter. As a longtime Musk skeptic in many areas, I thought that his move into Twitter would actually be a good thing. First of all, it matches his background better than Tesla. Twitter is a software play, and Musk’s actual expertise is in building software. Second, Twitter is just about software, not artificial intelligence, which tends to be where Musk gets into trouble. Finally, Musk has at least claimed to be a libertarian, though this seems to be limited to situations where he simply decides that he doesn’t want to do what is required of everyone else. When Musk first took control, it looked positive. Despite the incessant screaming of the Read More ›

press and media camera ,video photographer on duty in public new

^{Type
post

Author
Denyse O'Leary
Date
December 5, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship, Media, Politics

Tagged
Declining accuracy in media, Douglas Murray, Douglas Murray at Munk Debate, Malcolm Gladwell, Matt Taibbi, Matt Taibbi at Munk Debate, Matt Taibbi on media, Michelle Goldberg, Munk Debate 2022, Victor Davis Hanson}

Veteran News Hound: Why Not To Trust Mainstream Media Anymore

_{Matt Taibbi and Douglas Murray’s resounding triumph in the Munk debates sheds light on why mainstream media are dying} _{Denyse O'Leary

December 5, 2022

6

Business and Finance, Censorship, Media, Politics}

On November 30, at the prestigious Munk Debates in Toronto, 20-year news veteran Matt Taibbi and author and columnist Douglas Murray faced off against New Yorker writer Malcolm Gladwell and New York Times columnist Michelle Goldberg on the question: “Be it resolved, don’t trust mainstream media. The outcome was remarkable: As Taibbi tells it: A pre-event vote of attendees and listeners showed 48% support for our “side,” versus 52% for theirs. 82% of thousands of audience members claimed to be willing to change their minds. They were telling the truth, as it turned out. In a bitter slugfest that featured tense confrontations, impassioned oratory (especially from Douglas), and several almost unbelievably petty exchanges, Douglas and I swung the vote 39% Read More ›

Businessman holding investment finance chart, stock market business concept, and exchange, financial growth graph,Investing in the stock market of cryptocurrencies

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 21, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency

Tagged
Binance and FTX failure, Featured, FTX failure (2022), John Ray, Market capitalization}

Understanding the Fall of FTX — the False Reality of Market Caps

_{Let’s have a look at the critical question that was never asked in the first place…} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 21, 2022

9

Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency}

In finance, the “market capitalization” or “market cap” of a security or currency is a simple way to evaluate the overall “value” of the total entity (this is also called “network value” in terms of a cryptocurrency). It is easiest to think about market caps in terms of stocks instead of currencies. In the stock market, if ABC Company is broken up into 100,000 shares, and the going market price is $3 per share, then the market cap of ABC is $300,000. Likewise for coins, if there are 100,000 coins available, and the current market price of the coin is $7, then the market cap of the coin will be $700,000. The idea behind the market cap is that, if Read More ›

Peter Thiel via videoconference at COSM 2022

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
November 10, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance

Tagged
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Computer science vs physics, Computer sim universe, COSM, Featured, Multiverse (Peter Thiel's view), Peter Thiel, Peter Thiel on multiverse, Physics and universe as computer sim, Universe as computer sim}

Peter Thiel: The Multiverse Is a “Gateway Drug”

_{It’s a gateway drug to other crazy ideas, like the belief we live in a simulation} _{News

November 10, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance}

BELLEVUE, WA — Speaking to tech leaders and investors at COSM 2022 in the Seattle area, entrepreneur Peter Thiel provocatively asked “why do so many people in Silicon Valley believe in the simulation hypothesis that the entire universe, the cosmos, is just a computer simulation? Why do they believe something as crazy as this?” Actually, noted Thiel, the belief that our world is a simulation has now faded somewhat: I think probably the peak belief in the simulation hypothesis was maybe something like a decade ago, maybe circa 2012 to 2015, and it has probably faded some. We’ll still have Gen Z people say that things are a glitch in the simulation or there’s still some sort of passive reference Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jeffrey Funk
Date
November 7, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
Amazon's value proposition, Artificial intelligence and energy costs, Consumers and technology, Delivery drones and obstacles, Featured, Law of etendue and VR, Paul Krugman on computers, Satellite internet and slow service, Self-driving vehicles and edge cases, Tech growth as slowing (2022), Virtual reality and law of etendue}

Tech bubble? Our Progress Towards Value to Users Has Slowed…

_{We should be wary of glowing forecasts when newer technologies don’t offer anywhere near as large benefits} _{Jeffrey Funk

November 7, 2022

8

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics}

Today’s new technologies, from virtual reality to nuclear fusion have recently received record investments from venture capitalists, but their revenues are not growing as fast as technologies of past decades. Startup losses are unprecedented — far larger than in past decades. Share prices and private valuations have also been collapsing in 2022. Optimists mostly focus on the good news and ignore these facts. They believe that the heavy funding for these new technologies is a good measure of potential and thus any criticism is unjustified. Here is their typical argument: Paul Krugman and other “experts” criticized the Internet, personal computers, and other technologies in their early years. But these technologies succeeded. Therefore, criticisms of the new technologies are unfounded — Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
October 26, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media

Tagged
Alternative news media (Pew study), Billy Perigo, Carlos Slim and New York Times, Elon Musk (and Twitter), J. D. Vance and Rumble, Jeff Bezos and Washington Post, Peter Thiel and Rumble, Rumble stats, Social media (new owners 2022), Twitter employees oppose Musk, Ye West buying Parler}

Control of Social Media: Changes in the Lineup

_{Not just Elon Musk but Ye West, Peter Thiel, and J.D. Vance have their hats in the ring} _{News

October 26, 2022

5

Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media}

The social media field is seeing a wave of insurgents — not because it is profitable (it largely isn’t, just now) but perhaps because control is important for other purposes. Of course, whether we want to or not, we must begin with Musk and Twitter. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk must now acquire Twitter by October 28 or the whole thing goes back to trial in a Delaware court, where the judiciary will likely be peeved with him over antics that waste court time. The only people who are really unhappy now are Twitter employees. Musk announced an intention to lay off 75% of them and they have responded with an open letter: The letter demands that Musk commits to preserving Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
October 18, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship

Tagged
Brad Polumbo, Colin Wright, Kurt Mahlburg, PayPal imposing fines for wrongthink}

PayPal Can Still Fine Its Users $2500 for Wrongthink

_{It’s possible that PayPal is morphing into something like a church-based credit union, where certain beliefs and behavior are expected of customers} _{News

October 18, 2022

3

Business and Finance, Censorship}

As word of PayPal’s leaked proposal to charge users $2500 for spreading “misinformation” spread last week, the e-commerce system quickly disavowed it. They were wise. Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr described the proposal as “Orwellian.” Thousands sought out search terms around the concept of cancelling PayPal. Such a nice story; if only it ended there. Lesson learned and we all go home. But some caution, not so fast. Other things the Terms of Service (TOS) still says should also set users thinking: As it turns out, PayPal has in place another dystopian financial censorship policy that enacts similar fines for those it deems bigots or hatemongers. Law professor Eugene Volokh exposed the PayPal policy, which again authorizes $2,500 fines (taken Read More ›

Stock Trader Sleeping At Multiple Computer's Desk

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
October 17, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Sokal, Black box algorithms (in decision-making), Data pruning, Featured, Harris Friedman, Internal rate of return (IRR), Lemonade insurance company, Losada line, Marcial Losada, Mathematics and comprehensibility, Net present value (NPV), Nick Brown, NPV vs. IRR, Principal components regression}

More Hard Math Does Not Necessarily Mean More Useful Solutions

_{It is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance} _{Gary Smith

October 17, 2022

7

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

Math is said to be the language of science in that most (but definitely not all) scientific models of the world involve mathematical equations. The Pythagorean theorem, the normal distribution, Einstein’s energy-mass equivalence, Newton’s second law of motion, Newton’s universal law of gravitation, Planck’s equation. How could any of these remarkable models be expressed without math? Unfortunately, it is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance. The brilliance of the models listed above lies not in mathematical pyrotechnics but, if anything, in their breath-taking simplicity. Useful models help us understand the world and make reliable predictions. Math for the sake of math does neither. Examples of mindless math are legion. I will give three very different examples. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
October 10, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship

Tagged
Christiaan Hetzner, PayPal, PayPal as poor investment (2022), PayPal imposing fines}

Can PayPal Really Fine You $2500 for “Misinformation”?

_{Does the firm hope to grow rich off “fines” for Incorrect opinions? This episode will do nothing to allay suspicions} _{News

October 10, 2022

4

Business and Finance, Censorship}

Update: PayPal Value Down $6 Billion, ‘Delete PayPal’ Searches Soar 1,300% After Daily Wire Report Exposes ‘Misinformation’ Policy In an unusual sequence of events, PayPal announced the proposal: A new policy update from PayPal will permit the firm to sanction users who advance purported “misinformation” or present risks to user “wellbeing” with fines of up to $2,500 per offense. The financial services company, which has repeatedly deplatformed organizations and individual commentators for their political views, will expand its “existing list of prohibited activities” on November 3. Among the changes are prohibitions on “the sending, posting, or publication of any messages, content, or materials” that “promote misinformation” or “present a risk to user safety or wellbeing.” Users are also barred from “the Read More ›

senior woman is receiving post from an futuristic robotic delivery service

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
October 10, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Machine Learning, Robotics

Tagged
Amazon Scout tests discontinued (2022)}

Amazon Abandons Robot Home Delivery Service

_{Scout is in mothballs. We are told that “the program did not completely meet its customers' needs.”} _{News

October 10, 2022

3

Business and Finance, Machine Learning, Robotics}

Delivery folks, don’t quit your jobs yet: Oct 6 (Reuters) – Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) will stop live tests of its automated delivery robot “Amazon Scout”, a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement on Thursday, after the U.S. retailer realized the program did not completely meet its customers’ needs. The company is now scaling back or “reorienting” the program, and it will work with the involved employees to match them to other open roles within the organization, Amazon spokesperson Alisa Carroll said, adding that it was not abandoning the project altogether. Technology, “Amazon abandons live tests of Scout home delivery robot” at Reuters (October 6, 2022) Amazon insists that it is not abandoning the idea. But problems with the model Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
October 5, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media

Tagged
Babylon Bee and Twitter, Casey Newton on Musk and Twitter, Dan Gallagher, Laura Forman, Peter Kafka, Talulah Riley, Thomas Barrabi, Twitter and Elon Musk}

Musk and Twitter? The Babylon Bee Nailed It a While Back

_{After months-long strife, Musk offers full price for Twitter — for now. The drama continues to be free to view} _{News

October 5, 2022

4

Business and Finance, Censorship, Social Media}

We would not have credited even Elon Musk with his sudden decision to buy Twitter for the full price after months of legal proceedings during which he said he didn’t want it at all but Twitter, which hates him, was forcing him to buy it anyway. Not a rumor: Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk confirmed his intention to purchase Twitter, according to a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing on Monday. “[W]e write to notify you that the Musk Parties intend to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement,” Musk’s lawyers stated in a letter filed with the SEC. Andrew Moran, “Elon Musk Confirms Intention to Buy Twitter, SEC Filing Shows” at Read More ›

Woman reading online news on digital tablet

^{Type
post

Author
Denyse O'Leary
Date
October 3, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Media

Tagged
E-books, E-books dominant market players, E-books market growth, E-books returns, Karen McDermott}

E-Books: What’s To Know About a New Way To Read

_{The electronic books might appeal to people with more interests than space to store stuff} _{Denyse O'Leary

October 3, 2022

3

Business and Finance, Media}

E-books, books you can read on your computer, are becoming an ever-bigger presence in the market. MarketWatch currently wants nearly US$6000 to tell your company the market share forecast. They now make up 21% of book sales. Clearly, e-books would appeal to people who have more interests and ideas than they have space to store stuff. According to MarketWatch, the market is growing by roughly 20% a year. One source describes it like this: The global eBook market is being driven by technological advancements and the sophistication of reading devices that provide an experience similar to reading a physical book. The increased use of smartphones and the multilingual capabilities are predicted to boost global demand for eBooks. “eBook Market Overview Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Peter Biles
Date
October 1, 2022

Categorized
Arts & Culture, Business and Finance

Tagged
Beauty, commercialism, Featured, Literature, Lord of the Rings, money, Story, Tolkien, Woke culture}

Tolkien’s for Sale

_{Commercializing the beloved epic fantasy comes at a cost} _{Peter Biles

October 1, 2022

4

Arts & Culture, Business and Finance}

What happens when a beloved fantasy world, once respected and celebrated because it soared above the surrounding fray of decadent literature and art, becomes mainstream? What if the very work that was intended to transcend consumerism becomes the object of mass consumption? Harley J. Sims, writing for MercatorNet, believes Amazon has diluted the characteristic beauty and depth of The Lord of the Rings for the sake of mass consumption and appeal. I’ve shared my own thoughts on the new Rings of Power show in two separate pieces (here and here) for Mind Matters already, but just to recap: the show is interesting and entertaining enough to keep watching, but it’s missing something—a moral and imaginative ingredient Tolkien articulated beautifully in Read More ›