“The maximum hype you have right now, which is that AI is replacing people, is not true. But it’s also not true that AI will never threaten jobs. It’s going to be complicated.”
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They say Amazon is rolling out AI use in a haphazard way while also tracking their AI use, and they’re worried the company is essentially using them to train their eventual bot replacements.
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AI related companies have accrued at least $200 billion in debt and the figure is likely considerably higher because that estimate doesn’t count undisclosed private deals.
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People often invest in companies not because they think the companies will succeed, but because they think others will invest.
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Recently, talk of a bubble has increased as it has become clear that OpenAI, and likely other AI software companies, may never become profitable.
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AI software startups should be required to release audited numbers so that we can at least understand the current state of the AI economy.
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Circular financing is the last gasp for OpenAI and the cloud services. They need it to maintain the mirage of an economic boom despite big losses and small revenues for AI software.
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Companies can apply OpenAI’s models to a limited set of data and questions, creating a smaller model that is cheaper to train, update, and run.
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LLMs excel at simple coding tasks but are still too unreliable to use without extensive human supervision on complex tasks where mistakes are expensive.
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Users, whose output is used to train the AI systems, will pay higher electricity costs on account of them while experts eventually earn top salaries.
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Trying to understand the rationale of big monopolists such as Microsoft and Google is often a fool’s errand.
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The job market for recent college grads may be warning us that participation trophies for college and ChatGPT use have long-run costs.
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The tech sector can push AI hype that resembles cargo cult science to its investors because of changes in media resulting from 30 years of the internet.
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Individual workers may claim huge productivity gains for their work, ignoring the impact of AI on the work of downstream employees within the same process.
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Karikó’s story, as outlined in her book, highlights a big problem with universities: ideas matter less than sheer numbers of papers published.
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We should certainly stop making overly optimistic claims about America’s system of startups, science, and technology.
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So far, AI is dragging down economic growth by diverting so much human talent and natural resources away from more productive uses.
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Companies, universities and almost everyone else hypes the latest advances while those who question the hype are told that they are the problem.
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In the short run this system is being propped up by the big tech players but for a stable future, it needs to be self-sustaining.
Read More ›Consider a recent news report: “Anthropic is in advanced talks to raise $2 billion in a deal that would value it at $60 billion, more than triple its valuation from a year ago” says the Wall Street Journal. Anthropic’s last venture capital (VC) funding round, less than two months ago, raised $2 billion, bringing its total funding to $9.6 billion. OpenAI had raised $6.6 billion, last October just a year after it raised $10 billion from Microsoft the previous year and just months after it also raised funds on the debt and secondary markets. So that $6.6 billion round was the largest VC funding round ever, a little larger than the $6 billion that Elon Musk’s generative AI startup, xAI, raised in 2023. Read More ›