
Why isn’t the AI bubble ‘Common Knowledge’ and Pop?
Profits and revenues have been replaced by new metricsPeople often invest in companies not because they think the companies will succeed, but because they think others will invest.
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People often invest in companies not because they think the companies will succeed, but because they think others will invest.
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One change is that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT-5, seems to be acknowledging that the AI bubble might soon burst.
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Unlike the Internet, LLMs are not useful enough to prompt customers to pay prices that reflect the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to develop them.
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In the short run this system is being propped up by the big tech players but for a stable future, it needs to be self-sustaining.
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Ask someone how big AI will be, and the answer is likely huge. But how big is huge? Why does this matter? Because big forecasts encourage big investments, trials, and purchases. After big consulting companies predicted eight years ago that AI would have economic gains of about $15 trillion by 2030, many countries and companies felt the need to pay for their own reports from those same consultants. Of course, those consultants said that those countries could experience rapid productivity gains and those companies could experience rising profits if they implemented AI in the right way, which was of course under the guidance of the consulting companies! Eight years later and few of their predictions have come true. But their Read More ›

Stanford University’s AI index offers us fanciful measures of the triumph of AI, rivaling the far-fetched metrics of dot-com commerce. The reality has been the opposite. For decades, U.S. productivity grew by about 3% a year. Then, after 1970, it slowed to 1.5% a year, then 1%, now about 0.5%. Perhaps we are spending too much time on our smartphones.
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