Category: Economics | Page 3

Stock Trader Sleeping At Multiple Computer's Desk

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Gary Smith
Date
October 17, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Sokal, Black box algorithms (in decision-making), Featured, Lemonade insurance company, Principal components regression}

More Hard Math Does Not Necessarily Mean More Useful Solutions

_{It is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance} _{Gary Smith
October 17, 2022

7

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

Math is said to be the language of science in that most (but definitely not all) scientific models of the world involve mathematical equations. The Pythagorean theorem, the normal distribution, Einstein’s energy-mass equivalence, Newton’s second law of motion, Newton’s universal law of gravitation, Planck’s equation. How could any of these remarkable models be expressed without math? Unfortunately, it is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance. The brilliance of the models listed above lies not in mathematical pyrotechnics but, if anything, in their breath-taking simplicity. Useful models help us understand the world and make reliable predictions. Math for the sake of math does neither. Examples of mindless math are legion. I will give three very different examples. Read More ›

Robot hand putting fresh cherry on top of the cupcake

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News
Date
October 6, 2022

Categorized
Economics, Robotics, Work

Tagged
Featured, Frank Landymore, Jay Richards}

As the Robot Fry Cook Takes Over the Kitchen …

_{… Jay Richards’ new short “Science Uprising” special dismisses philosophical claims that humans are mere “meat machines”} _{News
October 6, 2022

4

Economics, Robotics, Work}

Science Uprising released an extra feature on Tuesday, following Science Uprising 10, in which philosopher Jay Richards discusses what underlies the myths of artificial intelligence: It isn’t a superior grasp of the technology involved that drives some (Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and others) to warn that AI will achieve superiority over human beings, drive us out of work, and finally out of existence. It’s the hidden premise that humans are just “meat machines” rather than spiritual beings in a creator’s image. If that were true, of course it would follow that other, faster machines would likely overtake and replace us. David Klinghoffer, “Jay Richards: Myths, Metaphysics, and Artificial Intelligence” at Evolution News (October 4, 2022) However it plays out among Read More ›

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Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
Date
October 4, 2022

Categorized
Economics, Education, Peer Review

Tagged
J. Robert Oppenheimer, Principal components regression, Stepwise regression}

The Hyper-Specialization of University Researchers

_{So many papers are published today in increasingly narrow specialties that, if there is still a big picture, hardly anyone can see it} _{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
October 4, 2022

5

Economics, Education, Peer Review}

The Bible warns that, “Of making many books there is no end; and much study is a weariness of the flesh.” Nowadays, the endless making of books is dwarfed by the relentless firehose of academic research papers. A 2010 study published in the British Medical Journal reported that the U.S. National Library of Medicine includes 113,976 papers on echocardiography — which would weary the flesh of any newly credentialed doctor specializing in echocardiography: We assumed that he or she could read five papers an hour (one every 10 minutes, followed by a break of 10 minutes) for eight hours a day, five days a week, and 50 weeks a year; this gives a capacity of 10000 papers in one year. Read More ›

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George Gilder
Date
September 22, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Economics, Events

Tagged
Carver Mead, COSM 2022, Featured, Federico Faggin, Keith Krach, Peter Thiel}

Is AI Sentient? Where’s the Economy Headed? Join Me at COSM 2022!

_{We’ll find out together from a remarkable lineup of insightful movers, shakers, and thinkers} _{George Gilder
September 22, 2022

2

Artificial Intelligence, Economics, Events}

Where is the U.S. economy headed in the next year? Is decoupling from China realistic, or even possible? Is our country ready for widescale electric vehicle adoption? And what are the cutting-edge technologies that will change the world? These are just a few of the questions we will grapple with at COSM 2022. Register now for COSM 2022, Nov. 9-11 in Seattle Another is whether AI will ever achieve consciousness. Remember the Google engineer who made national headlines a month ago for claiming that the company’s AI had become sentient? His name is Blake Lemoine, and he will be making his case — in one of his first public appearances — at COSM 2022 in November. We have also added Read More ›

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News
Date
September 22, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
Featured}

Why People Keep Investing in Cool Companies That Lose Money

_{If money is all that matters, a beautiful loser is still a loser,… But wait. IS money all that matters when we are buying unicorns (exciting startups)?} _{News
September 22, 2022

5

Business and Finance, Economics}

Recently, we’ve been looking at unicorns — those tech companies that are just so Now! that, like Uber, Airbnb, and DoorDash, they are part of our everyday conversation. But as Gary Smith and Jeffrey Funk have noted, they don’t make money. And seldom or never have. For years on end. The recent downturn could mean some don’t survive. So Mind Matters News asked Dr. Funk, “Why don’t people notice, year after year, that these companies are not good investments? Is the buzzy idea more important than the financial outcome?“ Here’s what he told us: There are many ways to answer this question. My favourite answer uses Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller’s concept of irrational exuberance. Some of the following words are Read More ›

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News
Date
September 21, 2022

Categorized
Cryptocurrency, Data Privacy, Economics

Tagged
COSM 2022, Featured, Mary Harrington, Warren Buffett}

Peter Thiel Will Be Luncheon Keynoter at COSM, November 9

_{Billionaire venture capitalist Thiel made waves earlier this year, calling Warren Buffett and other investment gurus a “finance gerontocracy”} _{News
September 21, 2022

4

Cryptocurrency, Data Privacy, Economics}

Some iconic tech venture capitalists go with the flow — and then there’s Peter Thiel: In an age when some computer scientists prophesy that AI will soon rise up and destroy mankind, he says no, that’s not happening; the big story is the End of Privacy. He also sees Big Tech innovation as slowing down, in the sense that most Wow!! new developments are successfully hyped riffs on earlier ones. He goes so far as to say that, contrary to expert views, cryptocurrency is not just a flash in the pan. At Bitcoin 2022, he blasted “Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink as ‘finance gerontocracy.’” That is, they are over the hill though not yet under it. So Thiel is Read More ›

unicorn on gold cube mountain . start up, illustration concept of leader on a market.3d rendering. 3d illustration.

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News
Date
September 14, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
Airbnb, Gary Smith, Jeffrey Lee Funk, Uber}

Warning: Unicorn Stocks May Be Nearing Bankruptcy, Fire Sales

_{Uber, Airbnb, and DoorDash seem so lifestyle-friendly … they even became part of our vocabulary} _{News
September 14, 2022

3

Business and Finance, Economics}

In an article today, Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith puzzle over the way investors have “rained cash” on unprofitable companies like Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, etc. Yes, they are icons of popular culture. No, unlike Apple and Google, they do not make money: Here are their stats from the table the authors offer: Company Founded Funds Raised Cumulative LossesUber Technologies 2009 $25.2 billion $31.7 billionAirbnb 2008 $6.0 billion $6.0 billionDoor Dash 2013 $2.5 billion $4.6 billion Only one of the 15 companies they list — including some other culture icons — has ever had a profitable quarter: Any hopeful arguments that profitability is just around the corner ring hollow when every company is at least nine years old and two are Read More ›

Macro image of a motherboard with the inscription

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News
Date
September 12, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Environment, Ethics, Politics

Tagged
China, COSM 2022, Featured, Keith Krach}

How Safe Is Our Tech If It Depends on Non-Free Nations?

_{Europe’s energy woes, in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine war, should spur us to take the question seriously} _{News
September 12, 2022

4

Business and Finance, Economics, Environment, Ethics, Politics}

Keith Krach, former chairman and CEO of Docusign, the app that enables you to conveniently buy a house in Delaware while selling one in Oregon, is speaking at COSM (November 9–11 in Seattle). Docusign was of immense help during the COVID pandemic when in-person transactions were often impractical, illegal, or just impossible. Go here to get the Early Adopter rate before September 15. Krach, former Under Secretary of State and current Chairman of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, has been thinking a good deal about our future and new technology. He is committed to the importance of rehoming technology Americans need in the United States, as he told Fierce Electronics recently: Our adversaries, starting with the Read More ›

China Taiwan and USA flag print screen to microchip on electronic board for symbol of military conflict war and economic business partnership concept.

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Heather Zeiger
Date
September 6, 2022

Categorized
China, Economics, Global Technology, Politics

Tagged
Featured, Mark Liu, Semiconductor industry and Taiwan, Taiwan and advanced microchips, Taiwan microchips industry, Taiwan sovereignty, Tsai Ing-wen}

Taiwan Has Bet Its Uncertain Future on Advanced Microchips

_{An increasingly belligerent China has long claimed to own Taiwan, which manufactures 90% of the world’s *advanced* microchips} _{Heather Zeiger
September 6, 2022

8

China, Economics, Global Technology, Politics}

Taiwan is the world’s largest manufacturer of microchips*, and not just by a small margin. Taiwan manufactures 65% of the microchips used in everything from smartphones to missiles. This compares to the U.S. at 10% and China at 5%. South Korea and Japan produce the rest. More important, Taiwan manufactures 90% of the world’s advanced microchips. In other words, without Taiwan, the world’s supply of microchips would come to a standstill, something that has been keenly felt since 2021 when chip shortages affected the auto industry. So far, the world’s dependence on Taiwan’s chips has protected the self-governing island nation from a potential invasion or ruinous trade sanctions from China. Earlier, we looked at U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit Read More ›

Set of red glass dice isolated on black background. 3d rendering - illustration.

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Gary Smith
Date
September 5, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Featured, James Tobin, John Maynard Keynes}

Don’t Worship Math: Numbers Don’t Equal Insight

_{The unwarranted assumption that investing in stocks is like rolling dice has led to some erroneous conclusions and extraordinarily conservative advice} _{Gary Smith
September 5, 2022

7

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

My mentor, James Tobin, considered studying mathematics or law as a Harvard undergraduate but later explained that I studied economics and made it my career for two reasons. The subject was and is intellectually fascinating and challenging, particularly to someone with taste and talent for theoretical reasoning and quantitative analysis. At the same time it offered the hope, as it still does, that improved understanding could better the lot of mankind. I was an undergraduate math major (at Harvey Mudd, not Harvard) and chose economics for the much the same reasons. Mathematical theories and empirical data can be used to help us understand and improve the world. For example, during the Great Depression in the 1930s, governments everywhere had so Read More ›

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Heather Zeiger
Date
August 29, 2022

Categorized
China, Economics, Politics

Tagged
CHIPS+ Act (2022), Featured, Mark Liu, Semiconductor industry and Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan and China}

Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Matters to China. And to Your Computer

_{China staged an impressive display of military firepower at U.S, lawmaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit Taiwan — prominent in the globally crucial semiconductor “chips” industry} _{Heather Zeiger
August 29, 2022

5

China, Economics, Politics}

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan at the beginning of August included a meeting with Mark Liu, head of the Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor Corporation (TMSC), which is the world’s largest producer of computer microchips — and makes most of the world’s advanced ones. Plans for Pelosi’s visit were first reported in Financial Times, after the trip was rescheduled due to COVID. China responded to the announcement with a global propaganda to present the visit as an act of defiance against the U.S. One China Policy. The U.S. One-China Policy recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China but it does not necessarily agree with the PRC on Taiwan being a part of China. Read More ›

Metaverse world NFT Art Gallery Avatars and VR Glasses 3D Illustrations

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News
Date
August 23, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency, Economics

Tagged
Adam Goad, Austin Egbert, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), Featured, hype curve, Non-Computable You (book), Non-fungible token (NFT), Robert J. Marks, Wisdom of Crowds (book)}

Are NFTs a Bubble That Has Just Plain Popped for Good?

_{Despite the crypto crash, they seem to be developing a life of their own — in ticket sales, for example} _{News
August 23, 2022

12

Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency, Economics}

Here’s the first part of Episode 3 of the discussion between computer engineering prof Robert J. Marks and computer engineering grad students Adam Goad and Austin Egbert on that wild new online world. They’ve been discussing what gives NFTs (non-fungible tokens) their value. Now, in “The NFT Anti-bubble” (August 18, 2022), they are looking at how NFTs are faring in the vast crypto crater. What still sells?: https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/Mind-Matters-200-Adam-Goad-Austin-Egbert.mp3 This portion begins at 00:15 min. A partial transcript, notes, and Additional Resources follow. Robert J. Marks: We have talked about non-fungible tokens kind of hitting the skids. Is this a bubble pop? Are non-fungible tokens going to disappear as kind of an interesting thing in history? Or are they going to Read More ›

NFT non fungible tokenscrypto art on colorful abstract background. Pay for unique collectibles in games or art. 3d render of NFT crypto art collectibles concept

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News
Date
August 18, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency, Economics

Tagged
Adam Goad, Austin Egbert, Featured, InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), OpenSea, Robert J. Marks}

What Gives NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) Their Value?

_{But first, a tour through the seamier side of the internet, supported in large part by the very blockchain that mints NFTs} _{News
August 18, 2022

16

Business and Finance, Cryptocurrency, Economics}

Here’s the second part of Episode 2 of the discussion between computer engineering prof Robert J. Marks and computer engineering grad students Adam Goad and Austin Egbert on the wild new online world of digital money, fan gear, contracts, and art. In the first part, Adam and Austin explained how digital collectibles — non-fungible tokens (NFTs) — work (or don’t). In this second part, What are NFTs?, they look at how people use them, with a sidestep into the swashbuckling world of crypto crime: https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/Mind-Matters-199-Adam-Goad-Austin-Egbert.mp3 A partial transcript, notes, and Additional Resources follow. The discussion continued with the NBA’s use of NFTs as the new “trading cards.” How are NFTs like or unlike the iconic cards? Adam Goad: That one Read More ›

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News
Date
August 17, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Law

Tagged
Debanking, Ron DeSantis}

Debanking… When Your Bank Acts Like a Political Party

_{In Canada, ordered by the government, banks began to act like the party in power. Panic, chaos, and bank runs ensued} _{News
August 17, 2022

6

Business and Finance, Economics, Law}

Earlier this year, we looked at debanking, during the Convoy protests in Canada. The government ordered the banks to freeze the private bank accounts of protesters against the federal government’s contested COVID-19 policies. As we’ll see, debanking, in various forms — where the bank decides, for political reasons — to freeze or end accounts, is becoming a “thing” in the United States too. What really happens? An investigation uncovered some sobering findings: The government invoked the rarely used Emergencies Act on February 14, insisting that doing so was constitutional (“Charter compliant”) and that freezing individuals’ bank accounts “did not amount to a seizure” of them. What happened afterward might give pause for thought: The banks were essentially handed a list Read More ›

Crypto Virtual Museum and Metaverse internet NFT display as a futuristic streaming media symbol as augmented reality and computer media concept.

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News
Date
August 16, 2022

Categorized
Cryptocurrency, Economics, Law

Tagged
Adam Goad, Featured, National Basketball Association (NBA), Non-fungible token (NFT), Non-fungible tokens (value), Robert J. Marks, semi-fungible token}

When You Buy a Non-Fungible Token (NFT), What Do You Own?

_{You are buying someone’s digital idea. Just what legal rights that NFT confers is an open question. But the NBA is now selling them…} _{News
August 16, 2022

14

Cryptocurrency, Economics, Law}

In the first episode of the discussion between computer engineering prof Robert J. Marks and computer engineering grad students Adam Goad and Austin Egbert (here and here), the discussion started with the projected metaverse and slowly turned to the wild world of cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens — like Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first tweet. What’s worth knowing about this burgeoning digital world? Here are Bob, Adam, and Austin again in Episode 2, What are NFTs?, Part 1: https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/Mind-Matters-199-Adam-Goad-Austin-Egbert.mp3 This portion begins at 00:10. A partial transcript, notes, and Additional Resources follow. Robert J. Marks: We have been talking to Adam Goad and Dr. Austin Egbert both at Baylor University about Web3. Web3, which uses distributed computing, is the tool that’s Read More ›

Business, finance, savings money, wages, payroll or accounting concept : Calendar with pink marker circle in word payday for remind

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News
Date
July 29, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Data Privacy, Economics, Surveillance}

Can Your Social Media Posts Sink Your Credit Rating? Maybe…

_{With AI tools, your posts or the time of day you apply for a loan might matter. Is that fair to you? Did you even know?} _{News
July 29, 2022

5

Business and Finance, Data Privacy, Economics, Surveillance}

University of Georgia law prof Lindsay Sain Jones and Virginia Tech law prof Janine Hiller offer what should be startling news: What does your SAT score mean for your ability to pay off a car loan? What does your Facebook feed say about your chances of landing a mortgage? And, what does your propensity for snacking on road trips mean for your credit score? The answers: More than you think. Traditional credit scoring is based on a person’s demonstrated ability to take on debt and pay it off. But with the dawn of larger data pools and access to more sophisticated modeling programs, lenders and credit agencies are taking more nonfinancial factors into rating creditworthiness, particularly those without an extensive Read More ›

Big eye watching a group of people 3D rendering

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Gary Smith
Date
July 11, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
Featured, Karl Marx, Thomas Malthus}

AI Would Run the World Better Than Humans, Google Research Claims

_{Don’t believe the headlines: Google’s inhouse game does not show that AI is ready to rule the world} _{Gary Smith
July 11, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics}

Sixty years ago, conservative provocateur William F. Buckley wrote, “I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the telephone directory, than by the Harvard University faculty.” Buckley was a Yale man, but his barb was not intended to compare Harvard to Yale. He later explained: Not, heaven knows, because I hold lightly the brainpower or knowledge or generosity or even the affability of the Harvard faculty: but because I greatly fear intellectual arrogance, and that is a distinguishing characteristic of the university which refuses to accept any common premise. Now may be the time to update Buckley’s incendiary remarks: I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the telephone directory, than by a black Read More ›

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News
Date
July 7, 2022

Categorized
Economics, Education, Ethics

Tagged
Dave Tomar, Featured}

Brain for Hire: The Internet Makes Academic Cheating Much Easier

_{Dave Tomar, who wrote essays for students for hire for a decade, then wrote a book about it, thinks 40% of students cheat at least once} _{News
July 7, 2022

5

Economics, Education, Ethics}

For many years, Dave Tomar was that bane that universities always claim to be doing something about but can’t (or anyway never) do — an essay writer for hire. Wait. Wasn’t the internet supposed to end cheating? The search engine reveals all, right?… No. Read on. In The Complete Guide to Contract Cheating in Higher Education (Academic Influence, 2022), Tomar, long a freelance writer and now a plagiarism expert, explains: Yes, that happened when Google became the default search engine in 2000 and the usual copy-paste and essay mill methods no longer worked. But… Cheaters and their enablers would just need to get more creative. If, before, there were just online repositories of essays and the people who curated them, Read More ›

close up man hand type on keyboard laptop to use search engine optimization (SEO) tools for finding customer or promote and advertise about content online for marketing technology and business concept

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News
Date
June 27, 2022

Categorized
Data Privacy, Economics, Social Media

Tagged
Brave Search, Brave search engine, DuckDuckGo Search, Google Search, Privacy, search engines}

The Brave Search Engine Survives. So Does Privacy Still Matter?

_{Despite Google’s overwhelming dominance, Brave clocked 2.5 billion searches since this time last year} _{News
June 27, 2022

4

Data Privacy, Economics, Social Media}

Last year, we wrote about the Brave search engine, headed up by Mozilla pioneer Brendan Eich. Brave Search offered the first true alternative to Google since Bing by introducing a third English language index and protecting user privacy. A nice idea, many have thought, but who really cares? So what if Big Tech makes largely unaccountable billions from marketing our information, as long as the social media services it provides remain free? So perhaps surprisingly, Brave is hanging on. Tech maven Jacob Carpenter noted recently at Fortune that, while Google owns 92.5% of the search market business according to StatCounter, that number hasn’t changed much over a decade. And Brave is reporting 2.5 billion searches from its current search engine’s Read More ›

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Gary Smith
Date
May 25, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Work

Tagged
Ezra Klein, Featured, James Tobin}

Some Economic Models are Alluring, Others are Useful

_{In some markets, prices are affected by market forces and in others, like the job market, they are not} _{Gary Smith
May 25, 2022

6

Business and Finance, Economics, Work}

Statistician George Box is credited with the aphorism, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Unfortunately, as the brilliant economist Ed Leamer, once quipped, “Economists are like artists. They tend to fall in love with their models.” A large part of the art of economics is distinguishing between attractive models and useful models. The traditional bedrock of economics is the demand-and-supply model. Every introductory economics course explains how demand and supply are related to price and how the equilibrium price is where demand is equal to supply. This can be a very useful model for predicting how changes in demand and supply affect prices and trades — if we make the tempting assumption that the market price is equal Read More ›