The answer to Monday Micro Softy 28 shows that, where chance is concerned, even the advice given in books about beating the odds can be wrong.
Read More ›
The solution to Monday Micro Softy 27 lies in appreciating the significance of Keith’s request for two bags instead of one.
Read More ›
The people who flunked the Linda problem were not biased; they just assumed there was some POINT to telling them that Linda was active in social justice issues.
Read More ›
Via the “Linda Problem,” Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky convinced generations that we don’t grasp probability. They’re wrong.
Read More ›
To solve this Micro Softy, you need to pinpoint the flaw in the logic that hinges on the Law of Conservation of Money.
Read More ›
Probability problems typically come down to analyzing the choices carefully and picking the most promising one.
Read More ›
And here’s the answer to why young Clay’s arithmetic didn’t make sense at first to Claude — but then Claude realized that the boy was right.
Read More ›
And here’s the answer to the probability question: What are the chances that Claude and Chloe’s younger child is also a boy?
Read More ›
AI models are really good at finding patterns in data but they are bad at deciding whether these spotted patterns can be used to make reliable predictions.
Read More ›
With the Yankees and Dodgers so evenly matched, this World Series will be somewhat like a coin-flipping contest. That’s the paradox of luck and skill.
Read More ›
Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model.
Read More ›
Some prediction models were developed by well-intentioned researchers before the perils of p-hacking were clearly understood, hence the failures.
Read More ›
Statistical analysis shows that in major sports, the players or teams that won most of their games benefitted to a surprising degree from good luck.
Read More ›
Here’s the takeaway. Infinity does not exist in reality. There are not an infinite number of parallel universes. It’s thought candy.
Read More ›
In his discussion with Robert Lawrence Kuhn at Closer to Truth, Tufts physicist and cosmologist Alexander Vilenkin addresses the question, “Is the Universe Fine-Tuned for Life and Mind?”: If the deep laws of the universe had been ever so slightly different human beings wouldn’t, and couldn’t, exist. All explanations of this exquisite fine-tuning, obvious and not-so-obvious, have problems or complexities. Natural or supernatural, that is the question. Vilenkin — who is also a professor of evolutionary science — concedes the main point: Alexander Vilenkin: [0:40] Well yeah that’s right. It appears that the Universe is fine-tuned in the sense that there are about 30 constants of nature which take some specific value: if you look at these numbers, they look Read More ›
Earth IS special. The Copernican Principle is false, due to massive evidence of fine-tuning. Of course, that does not show that Earth is unique.
Read More ›
If the regular season is devalued and the playoffs are recognized as essentially meaningless, the MLB may actually lose money.
Read More ›
One anomaly this year is that Seattle didn’t qualify for the playoffs even though it had a better record than the Central Division winner, Minnesota.
Read More ›
Philosopher Antony Flew believed that evidence matters; that is why fine-tuning turned him from atheism to deism. Can science do without an evidence base?
Read More ›
If the “inherent design” of an advanced computer describes how the human brain processes visual information, intelligent design seems a reasonable conclusion.
Read More ›