To solve last week’s puzzle, don’t be so sure that you need a degree in probability theory. Study the situation described.
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There is more than one solution to last week’s Queens Problem because the board can be rotated — but we present one here.
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Instead of asking whether a system can imitate human behavior, the relevant question is whether it can generate new functional information.
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To solve last week’s puzzle, we should picture what must happen when every bug wants to place itself between two other bugs.
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About last week’s MicroSofty: Think of the probability issue as just a distraction…
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Last week’s puzzle, like several others, is easy to solve if we use inclusive thinking about relationships.
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The answer to Monday Micro Softy 28 shows that, where chance is concerned, even the advice given in books about beating the odds can be wrong.
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The solution to Monday Micro Softy 27 lies in appreciating the significance of Keith’s request for two bags instead of one.
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The people who flunked the Linda problem were not biased; they just assumed there was some POINT to telling them that Linda was active in social justice issues.
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Via the “Linda Problem,” Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky convinced generations that we don’t grasp probability. They’re wrong.
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To solve this Micro Softy, you need to pinpoint the flaw in the logic that hinges on the Law of Conservation of Money.
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Probability problems typically come down to analyzing the choices carefully and picking the most promising one.
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And here’s the answer to why young Clay’s arithmetic didn’t make sense at first to Claude — but then Claude realized that the boy was right.
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And here’s the answer to the probability question: What are the chances that Claude and Chloe’s younger child is also a boy?
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AI models are really good at finding patterns in data but they are bad at deciding whether these spotted patterns can be used to make reliable predictions.
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With the Yankees and Dodgers so evenly matched, this World Series will be somewhat like a coin-flipping contest. That’s the paradox of luck and skill.
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Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model.
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Some prediction models were developed by well-intentioned researchers before the perils of p-hacking were clearly understood, hence the failures.
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Statistical analysis shows that in major sports, the players or teams that won most of their games benefitted to a surprising degree from good luck.
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Here’s the takeaway. Infinity does not exist in reality. There are not an infinite number of parallel universes. It’s thought candy.
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