Mind Matters Natural and Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis

CategoryProbability

people-sad-and-funeral-coffin-death-and-grief-in-church-duri-544245387-stockpack-adobestock
People, sad and funeral coffin, death and grief in church during ceremony or service, depression or floral. Support, emotional pain and sorry with casket, mourning and man in suit at casket in chapel

Monday Micro Softy 29: A Funeral Lament in Four Lines

The funeral director was puzzled by Dan’s description of his relationship to the deceased but there was no question that his grief was sincere
The answer to Monday Micro Softy 28 shows that, where chance is concerned, even the advice given in books about beating the odds can be wrong. Read More ›
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Bright red keyboard key inviting users to enter a competition or sweepstakes while highlighting the importance of participation

Monday Micro Softy 28: Beating the Odds of Winning Sweepstakes?

Does it make a difference when the sweepstakes hobbyist sends in her entries?
The solution to Monday Micro Softy 27 lies in appreciating the significance of Keith’s request for two bags instead of one. Read More ›
ai-robot-sitting-on-a-chair-next-to-an-elderly-man-with-coff-895612249-stockpack-adobestock
AI robot sitting on a chair next to an elderly man with coffee, both waiting for a job interview. AI vs human concept. futuristic technology coexisting with people in a professional environment

The Linda Problem Revisited, As If Reality Matters

Part 2: AI enthusiasts use false claims for humans' “natural stupidity” to bolster claims for machine intelligence
The people who flunked the Linda problem were not biased; they just assumed there was some POINT to telling them that Linda was active in social justice issues. Read More ›
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Cognitive Bias and Judgement Error - Conceptual Illustration

Humans Aren’t That Biased — and Machines Aren’t That Smart

Part 1: At an upcoming conference on AI, I will be puncturing that particular AI enthusiast’s fantasy
Via the "Linda Problem," Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky convinced generations that we don't grasp probability. They're wrong. Read More ›
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group of musicians after the performance of his work

Monday Micro Softy 11: What Happened to That Other Dollar?

Shirley, Goodness, and Mercy get the discount for their cheap hotel rooms but the figures don’t really add up
To solve this Micro Softy, you need to pinpoint the flaw in the logic that hinges on the Law of Conservation of Money. Read More ›
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Leather dice cup and dice on the table, rolling all sixes with 5 dice representing gambling and luck

The Monday Micro Softy 10: The Monte Hall Problem

In this case, it comes down to: How badly do you want a goat in your life?
Probability problems typically come down to analyzing the choices carefully and picking the most promising one. Read More ›
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Baseball player hitting ball with bat in close up

Monday Micro Softy 7:  Who’s the Champ?

A single number does not always determine which player is better
And here’s the answer to why young Clay’s arithmetic didn’t make sense at first to Claude — but then Claude realized that the boy was right. Read More ›
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Mathematic or education concept

Monday Micro Softy 6: Bad Adding?

It looked to Claude like young Clay’s numbers didn’t add up but he seemed confident. What did he know that his father at first didn’t?
And here’s the answer to the probability question: What are the chances that Claude and Chloe’s younger child is also a boy? Read More ›
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Blue and green turf meets futuristic stadium lights as football players clash, pixelated projectiles in flight, technology merging with old-school gridiron glory.

Do Fantasy Sports Tell Us Something About Artificial Intelligence?

My biggest takeaway from my own involvement is how well fantasy football illuminates some weaknesses of artificial intelligence (AI)
AI models are really good at finding patterns in data but they are bad at deciding whether these spotted patterns can be used to make reliable predictions. Read More ›
vintage-baseball-on-a-weathered-american-flag-stockpack-adob-876174378-stockpack-adobe_stock
Vintage baseball on a weathered American flag

The World Series of Coin Flips

Here we go again with the annual coin-flipping ritual known as the World Series
With the Yankees and Dodgers so evenly matched, this World Series will be somewhat like a coin-flipping contest. That's the paradox of luck and skill. Read More ›
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Businessman forecasting a crystal ball

P-Hacking: The Perils of Presidential Election Models

History professor Alan Lichtman’s model uses 13 true/false questions reflecting likely voter interests. But some of them seem rather subjective
Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model. Read More ›
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High-tech American election coverage in a futuristic studio

Presidential Pundits—a P-Hacking Parable

In politics, as elsewhere, too many studies flop when other researchers attempt to replicate them with fresh data
Some prediction models were developed by well-intentioned researchers before the perils of p-hacking were clearly understood, hence the failures. Read More ›
baseball-with-good-luck-sign-are-on-green-grass-stockpack-adobe-stock
Baseball with good luck sign are on green grass

What the Luck? How Luck Matters to Olympic and Major League Wins

One way to think about the relative importance of skill and luck is to consider the consistency of the outcomes
Statistical analysis shows that in major sports, the players or teams that won most of their games benefitted to a surprising degree from good luck. Read More ›
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close up view of silver coin in hand of gambler scratching lottery card

The Two-Sided Lottery Card Paradox and Infinity

Assuming the infinite often leads to ridiculous conclusions.
Here’s the takeaway. Infinity does not exist in reality. There are not an infinite number of parallel universes. It's thought candy. Read More ›
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Physics or mathematical equations on a universe decorative LED background give the impression of interstellar space travel.

A Physicist Tries to Avoid the Fact of Design in Our Universe…

Physicist Alexander Vilenkin of Tufts University argues, against apparent fine-tuning, that our universe’s cosmological constant should have a special value like zero, but doesn’t

In his discussion with Robert Lawrence Kuhn at Closer to Truth, Tufts physicist and cosmologist Alexander Vilenkin addresses the question, “Is the Universe Fine-Tuned for Life and Mind?”: If the deep laws of the universe had been ever so slightly different human beings wouldn’t, and couldn’t, exist. All explanations of this exquisite fine-tuning, obvious and not-so-obvious, have problems or complexities. Natural or supernatural, that is the question. Vilenkin — who is also a professor of evolutionary science — concedes the main point: Alexander Vilenkin: [0:40] Well yeah that’s right. It appears that the Universe is fine-tuned in the sense that there are about 30 constants of nature which take some specific value: if you look at these numbers, they look Read More ›

blue-earth-seen-from-the-moon-surface-stockpack-adobe-stock
blue earth seen from the moon surface

The Search for ET Should Quit Claiming Earth Is Not Special

How will we assess the raw probability of being alone in this universe when we have no other universe to compare with ours?
Earth IS special. The Copernican Principle is false, due to massive evidence of fine-tuning. Of course, that does not show that Earth is unique. Read More ›
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starry night sky. only sky, mountains and stars.

Does the Evidence for Our Universe’s Fine-Tuning Mean Anything?

Why is a divine Mind not “scientific” if the evidence points in that direction?
Philosopher Antony Flew believed that evidence matters; that is why fine-tuning turned him from atheism to deism. Can science do without an evidence base? Read More ›
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the head of a person is full of different numbers Generative AI

Did “Evolution” Wire Human Brains to “Act Like Supercomputers”?

In making such a claim, psychology researchers may have got more than they bargained for
If the “inherent design” of an advanced computer describes how the human brain processes visual information, intelligent design seems a reasonable conclusion. Read More ›