^CategoryProbability

CORRELATION - Red text on typography background - 3D rendered royalty free stock image. This image can be used for an online website banner ad or a print postcard.

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post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
September 19, 2022

Categorized
Mathematics, Probability

Tagged
Featured, HARKing, spurious correlations (in Big Data), Spurious Correlations (website), Stepwise regression, Stepwise regression tested}

Step Away From Stepwise Regression (and Other Data Mining)

_{Stepwise regression, which is making a comeback, is just another form of HARKing — Hypothesizing After the Results are Known} _{Gary Smith

September 19, 2022

6

Mathematics, Probability}

There is a strong correlation between the number of lawyers in Nevada and the number of people who died after tripping over their own two feet. There are similarly impressive correlations between U.S. crude oil imports and the per capita consumption of chicken — and the number of letters in the winning word in the Scripps National Spelling Bee and the number if people killed by venomous spiders. If you find these amusing (as I do), there are many more at the website Spurious Correlations. These silly statistical relationships are intended to demonstrate that correlation is not causation. But no matter how often or how loudly statisticians shout that warning, many people do not hear it. When there is a…

Chinese fortune cookies. Cookies with empty blank inside for prediction words. Blue background.

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post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
July 15, 2022

Categorized
Probability, Sports

Tagged
Baseball and luck, Featured, Home Run Derby Curse, Luck as factor in sports, Max Kaplan, MLB All-Star game 2022, Pete Gammon, Regression to the mean}

We Love Baseball Because of — Not Despite — Lady Luck

_{With a big game approaching, emotions run high so let’s heed some statistical realities} _{Gary Smith

July 15, 2022

5

Probability, Sports}

As we approach the MLB All-Star Game in Los Angeles on July 19, we can be confident of one thing — most current league leaders will not do as well after the break as they did before it. Baseball broadcaster and National Sportswriter of the Year Peter Gammons was among the first to notice this. He wrote in 1989 that, of those baseball players who hit more than 20 home runs before the All-Star break, 90 percent pegged fewer than 20 after the break. Gammons concluded that there was a “second-half power outage,” perhaps because the sluggers got nervous about the possibility of breaking a home run record. More recently, sports forecaster Max Kaplan made a similar observation, which he…

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
July 6, 2022

Categorized
Probability

Tagged
Blaise Pascal, Christians who gamble, Exponential law and gambling, Featured, gambling, Holy Rollers: The True Story of Card Counting Christians, Joseph R. Fahey, Keith Taft, Kevin Blackwood, Law of Large Numbers and gambling, Pascal's Wager, Pierre de Fermat, Robert J. Marks, Salvador Cordova, Unfinished Game (book)}

The Holy Rollers: Christians Who Gamble for God

_{Not only have many successful players been Christians, probability theory was developed in part by a philosopher who became a devout Christian} _{News

July 6, 2022

14

Probability}

This last instalment of the writeup of the podcasts with mathematician, computer scientist, engineer — and part-time gambler — Salvador Cordova looks at why and how Christians like himself gamble without cheating. Cordova was one of the crowdfunders of a film on the topic called Holy Rollers (2011). The host is fellow engineer and Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks in “Card Counting Strategies and Dangers” (podcast, June 23, 2022): https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/Mind-Matters-News-Episode-192-Sal-Cordova-Episode-4-rev1.mp3 This portion begins at 15:47 min. A partial transcript and notes, Show Notes, and Additional Resources follow. Robert J. Marks: First of all, tell us what the movie was about, and then your involvement. Sal Cordova: It’s about one of the most successful card counting teams, blackjack teams.…

policewoman holding arrested young woman while her partner talking on portable radio

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
July 6, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Crime, Probability

Tagged
AI and crime prediction claims, Algorithms in criminology, China and crime prediction algorithms, Featured, Minority Report (film), Richard Berk, University of Chicago (AI predicts crime claim)}

Can AI Really Predict Crime a Week in Advance? That’s the Claim.

_{University of Chicago data scientists claim 90% accuracy for their algorithm using past data — but it’s hard to evaluate} _{Gary Smith

July 6, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Crime, Probability}

The University of Chicago recently announced to great fanfare that, Data and social scientists from the University of Chicago have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. The model can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy. University of Chicago Medical Center, “Algorithm Predicts Crime a Week in Advance, but Reveals Bias in Police Response” at Newswise (June 28, 2022) Many thought immediately of the 2002 movie Minority Report, in which three psychics (“precogs”) visualize murders before they occur, thereby allowing special PreCrime police to arrest would-be assailants before they can commit them. Have these University of Chicago researchers made…

A group of people playing gambling in a casino

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
July 4, 2022

Categorized
Probability

Tagged
Advantage players working in teams, Big Player (book 1977), Bringing Down the House (book 2003), Casinos and violence, Featured, Kelly criterion in gambling, Ken Uston, Law of Large Numbers and gambling, Robert J. Marks, Rounders (movie 1998), Salvador Cordova, Twenty One (movie 2008)}

Gambling: When advantage players team up, dealer beware!

_{On the other hand, the movie industry has made a good thing from films of the legendary exploits} _{News

July 4, 2022

12

Probability}

Gambling has got to be a slam dunk exciting premise for films. Once again, mathematician, computer scientist, engineer — and part-time gambler — Salvador Cordova joins fellow engineer and Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks to talk about gambling and probability — how hard math types (advantage players) like himself have beaten the odds without cheating. And, this time, they discuss how their skills while working together can wind up as a movie. From Robert J. Marks in Card Counting Strategies and Dangers (podcast): https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/Mind-Matters-News-Episode-192-Sal-Cordova-Episode-4-rev1.mp3 This portion begins at 00:23 min. A partial transcript and notes, Show Notes, and Additional Resources follow. Robert J. Marks: Have you ever taken advantage of your skills embedding with other people? … Sal…

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
June 29, 2022

Categorized
Law, Probability

Tagged
Advantage players' casino strategies, Bill Gross, Blackjack for Blood (book), Blackjack strategies, Bryce Carlson, Computers in gambling strategy, Exponential growth law, Featured, gambling, Gambling (computer-based strategies), Gambling economics, Keith Taft, Omega II in card counting, Peter A. Griffin, Rice on a chessboard concept, Robert J. Marks, Salvador Cordova, Theory of Blackjack (book)}

Probability: Now for the Basic Arithmetic of Card Counting…

_{The advantage player who dresses like a bum (or worse) has it all worked out, in part with the help of a computer at home} _{News

June 29, 2022

13

Law, Probability}

In “Can a good hustler count cards like a computer?” (podcast), Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks continues his discussion of card counting techniques with gambling ace Salvador Cordova, also a mathematician and engineer. An “advantage player,” Cordova made his living, in part, by beating the casinos from about 2005 through 2014. Note: This podcast involves a fair amount of discussion of specific numbers so the partial transcript below may be especially useful: https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/Mind-Matters-Episode-191-Sal-Cordova-Episode-3-rev1.mp3 This portion begins at approximately 12:00 min. A partial transcript and notes, Show Notes, and Additional Resources follow. Robert J. Marks: That’s the card counting system you use, Omega II? Sal Cordova: Right. If you see an ace or an eight, you just add zero…

Croupier hands dealing cards on t blackjack poker table, gambling table with cards and chips

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
June 23, 2022

Categorized
Probability

Tagged
Blackjack and card counting, Card counting in Blackjack, Edward Oakley Thorpe, Featured, Gambler's Ruin, John Larry Kelly, Omega II in card counting, Robert J. Marks, Salvador Cordova}

Can You Really Be a Card Counter Without Resorting to Magic?

_{Math nerd (and successful gambler) Salvador Cordova explains how card counters improve their odds in blackjack} _{News

June 23, 2022

10

Probability}

Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks is back withSalvador Cordova, mathematician, engineer — and gambling ace. In previous episodes, they discussed why most players lose and how “advantage players” — those who understand the game, the players, the management, and the mathematical probabilities — sometimes clean out casinos. Of course, they also sometimes get kicked out, as has happened to Cordova, and new rules and precautions ensue. And, doubtless, new ways are found around them. In this new podcast episode, “Can a good hustler count cards like a computer?”, Cordova says a bit more about how the pros improve their odds from pure chance by card counting. He made his living, inpart, that way from about 2005 through 2014.…

Croupier behind gambling table in a casino

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
June 20, 2022

Categorized
Mathematics, Probability

Tagged
Advantage players and stock market, Advantage players' casino strategies, Alan Woods, Bill Gross, Blackjack (card game), Card Counting, Featured, Gambling and probability, Richard Dennis, Robert J. Marks, Salvador Cordova, Turtles experiment (1983), William Eckhardt}

Can Casinos Ban Customers Who Might Get TOO “Lucky”?

_{Sal Cordova was good enough at card counting that his photo was circulated and casino nabbed his driver’s licence…} _{News

June 20, 2022

15

Mathematics, Probability}

In a recent podcast, “When the house can’t win the game, it will change the rules” (June 9, 2022), Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks continued his discussion with mathematician, computer scientist, and engineer Salvador Cordova on the mathematics of gambling — who wins, who loses, and why. Last week, we looked at the struggle between the casino and the “advantage player” who knows very well how the system works and spots its weaknesses. But now, what about banning a suspiciously “lucky” would-be customer outright? Here’s what happened to Sal Cordova: https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/Mind-Matters-News-Episode-190-Sal-Cordova-Episode-2-rev1.mp3 This portion begins at roughly 11:10 min. A partial transcript and notes, Show Notes, and Additional Resources follow. Sal Cordova: One of the better things is that…

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
June 17, 2022

Categorized
Probability

Tagged
Casinos and security, Featured, Gambling and probability, Robert J. Marks, Salvador Cordova}

The Struggle Between Casinos and Advantage Players

_{The scene is enlivened by assorted other characters who use romance to help in the struggle for a big win. Sal Cordova explains} _{News

June 17, 2022

12

Probability}

In a recent podcast, “When the house can’t win the game, it will change the rules” (June 9, 2022), Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks continued his discussion with mathematician, computer scientist, and engineer Salvador Cordova on the mathematics of gambling — why the odds are stacked against the gambler — or, depending on a gambler’s skill and knowledge of the circumstances, maybe they aren’t… https://mindmatters.ai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/Mind-Matters-News-Episode-190-Sal-Cordova-Episode-2-rev1.mp3 This portion begins at approximately 00:31 min. A partial transcript and notes, Show Notes, and Additional Resources follow below. Marks and Cordova ended Episode 1 by discussing the famous advantage player Don Johnson who cleaned out Atlantic City for tens of millions of dollars in 2011. What was his secret? Sal Cordova: He…

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway
Date
June 7, 2022

Categorized
Biology, Probability, Programming

Tagged
Bruce Salem, Darwinian evolution and exponential sums, Darwinian evolution and time allowed, Engineers and evolution doubt, Evolution and time allowed, Evolutionary algorithms and the Salem hypothesis, Featured, P double prime programming language, Salem Hypothesis}

The Salem Hypothesis: Why Engineers View the Universe as Designed

_{Not because we're terrorists or black-and-white thinkers, as claimed. A simple computer program shows the limits of creating information by chance} _{Eric Holloway

June 7, 2022

8

Biology, Probability, Programming}

In the fun-filled world of internet debate between creationists and evolutionists, we encounter the Salem Hypothesis: Creationists tend to be engineers. Many explanations have been offered for this phenomenon (apparently named after Talk Origins contributor Bruce Salem): engineers are closet terrorists creationists are trying to protect their fragile beliefs a desire to exert authority engineers like simple black and white answers There’s a reason internet forums are not known for flattering character analysis! Anyhow, the true reason for the Salem Hypothesis is summed up in this graph. Read on to find out why. Engineers are more likely to be creationists because they are familiar with what it takes to design complex things for specific tasks. Which is exactly what we…