Mind Matters Natural and Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis

TagAlan Lichtman

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Businessman forecasting a crystal ball

P-Hacking: The Perils of Presidential Election Models

History professor Alan Lichtman’s model uses 13 true/false questions reflecting likely voter interests. But some of them seem rather subjective

Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model.

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man riding on self balancing board graffiti

Election Models: Predicting the Past is Easy — and Useless

You can seldom see where you are going by looking in a rear-view mirror

I told my students that I had a model that predicted the popular vote for the the last ten presidential elections (1980–2016) perfectly.

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