Tag: Alan Lichtman

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 8, 2024

Categorized
Politics, Probability

Tagged
Alan Lichtman, Featured, P-hacking and electoral predictions}

P-Hacking: The Perils of Presidential Election Models

_{History professor Alan Lichtman’s model uses 13 true/false questions reflecting likely voter interests. But some of them seem rather subjective} _{Gary Smith
October 8, 2024

7

Politics, Probability}

Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model. Read More ›

man riding on self balancing board graffiti

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 13, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Lichtman, Data Mining, Donald Trump, Elections, Featured, Helmut Norpoth, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John von Neumann, predictions}

Election Models: Predicting the Past is Easy — and Useless

_{You can seldom see where you are going by looking in a rear-view mirror} _{Gary Smith
July 13, 2020

8

Mathematics}

I told my students that I had a model that predicted the popular vote for the the last ten presidential elections (1980–2016) perfectly. Read More ›