^TagHelmut Norpoth

High-tech American election coverage in a futuristic studio

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 7, 2024

Categorized
Politics, Probability, Science

Tagged
Helmut Norpoth, P-hacking and electoral predictions}

Presidential Pundits—a P-Hacking Parable

_{In politics, as elsewhere, too many studies flop when other researchers attempt to replicate them with fresh data} _{Gary Smith
October 7, 2024

7

Politics, Probability, Science}

Some prediction models were developed by well-intentioned researchers before the perils of p-hacking were clearly understood, hence the failures. Read More ›

man riding on self balancing board graffiti

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 13, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Lichtman, Data Mining, Donald Trump, Elections, Featured, Helmut Norpoth, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John von Neumann, predictions}

Election Models: Predicting the Past is Easy — and Useless

_{You can seldom see where you are going by looking in a rear-view mirror} _{Gary Smith
July 13, 2020

8

Mathematics}

I told my students that I had a model that predicted the popular vote for the the last ten presidential elections (1980–2016) perfectly. Read More ›