Eric Holloway

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
May 19, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Law, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
Debating, Noam Slonim, Project Debater}

Can a New AI Debating Program Win All the Debates?

_{While billed as an autonomous debating system, Project Debater features very little autonomy} _{Eric Holloway

May 19, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Law, Philosophy of Mind}

From ancient days, reason has been considered the hallmark of what sets humans apart from animals. Aristotle defined humans as the rational animal and this definition has stuck through the history of Western philosophy. Human reason is best demonstrated in debate. Thus, if we can create programs that argue a point effectively, then computers will have conquered an important frontier of what it means to be intelligent. Recently, we learned at Nature that one research team claims to have developed such a program: A fully autonomous computer system has been developed that can take part in live debates with people. The findings hint at a future in which artificial intelligence can help humans to formulate and make sense of complex…

Stock market data on digital LED display. Fundamental and technical analysis with candle stick graph chart of stock market trading to represent about Bullish and Bearish point.

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
May 17, 2021

Categorized
Business and Finance, Creativity

Tagged
Businesses (as if life forms), Creativity, Darwinian evolution theory, entrepreneurship, Evolution theory, John Freeman, Michael Hannan, Organizational ecology, Organizational Ecology (book), Peter Thiel, Zero to One (book)}

Can Darwinian Theory Explain the Rise and Fall of Businesses?

_{The fashionable field of organizational ecology says yes — organizations are like animals in nature} _{Eric Holloway

May 17, 2021

Business and Finance, Creativity}

When you think of “business,” do you think of stuffy suits and boring meetings? But maybe that’s just a pose. Organizational science studies what makes businesses survive, thrive and die. The description makes businesses sound more like living, vulnerable animals, doesn’t it? There is even a widely accepted subfield called organizational ecology, founded by Michael Hannan and John Freeman (1944–2008), which applies evolution theory to businesses. In 1989, Harvard University Press published their very influential book on the topic. Organizational ecology applies a specifically Darwinian form of evolution theory to businesses. That is, the main driving force of change for businesses is seen as natural selection. The “ecology” part of organizational ecology is the idea that the ever-changing business environment…

Futuristic heads up display blue green abstract interface

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
April 26, 2021

Categorized
Philosophy, Science

Tagged
Benford's Law, Carl Sagan, Chance, Conspiracy theories, design in nature, design inference, Detachability (and design inference), Explanatory Filter, Intelligent design theory, Necessity, Probability, Voter fraud allegations (in U.S.), William Dembski}

How the Explanatory Filter Can Help Quash Conspiracy Theories

_{I found Dembski’s explanatory filter quite helpful in investigating voter fraud claims} _{Eric Holloway

April 26, 2021

Philosophy, Science}

William Dembski’s explanatory filter is a decision strategy for identifying events that are unlikely to have happened purely by chance. The filter proceeds in three main steps, which can be illustrated via the plot device in Contact, a novel (1985) by Carl Sagan, followed by a film (1997): Eliminate events of large probability (necessity): A radio telescope receives a pattern of beeps and pauses. Perhaps the pattern seems strange to us but we could just be overinterpreting inevitable space noise. Eliminate events of medium probability (chance): The pattern turns out to be a sequence of prime numbers. However, large randomly generated numbers sometimes feature apparent patterns (five 5s in a row, for example) that don’t signify anything. Specify the event…

Spiral aloe vera with water drops, closeup

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
April 25, 2021

Categorized
Ethics, Philosophy of Mind, Religion, Surveillance

Tagged
Alger Hiss (book), Communism, design in nature, God (Whittaker Chambers's account), Terror, Whittaker Chambers, Witness (book)}

How Did One Man Gain the Strength to Turn Away From Nihilism?

_{Chambers was quite willing to accept that he had joined, essentially, a terrorist organization, so long as he could see it as for the greater good} _{Eric Holloway

April 25, 2021

Ethics, Philosophy of Mind, Religion, Surveillance}

American writer Whittaker Chambers (1901–1961) sparked McCarthyism (a witch hunt against suspected Communists at high levels in the U.S. government in the early 1950s), during the trial of State Department official Alger Hiss. Senator Joseph McCarthy began his eponymous crusade against communists largely because Chambers had exposed Hiss as a Communist spy. Chambers, a senior editor at Time Magazine, knew that Hiss was a spy because Chambers himself was a spy who worked closely with Hiss and was in fact a very close friend. Which begs the question, why would a spy turn in his closest friend, as well as imperil himself? To understand the question and provide an answer, Chambers wrote an account of his conversion experience, and the…

Anti social man, business connection or social network concept, miniature people businessman standing on colorful pastel chalk line link and connect between multiple dot or tiers on blackboard

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
April 9, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Creativity, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
__featured, Creative intelligence, Creative intelligence (cluttered attic analogy), Creative intelligence (connect the dots analogy), Creative intelligence (puzzle analogy), Creativity, Incompleteness theorems (Gödel), Kurt Gödel}

What Is the Essential Feature of Creative Intelligence?

_{Creative intelligence is easier to describe by what it is not than by what it is. But there is a clue in that very fact…} _{Eric Holloway

April 9, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Creativity, Philosophy of Mind}

I’ve spent the past couple articles debunking artificial intelligence. It is just as artificial as its name suggests. It takes on the appearance of intelligence through speed but it lacks the fundamental ability to create a well-matched start and end. So a perceptive reader has returned with another good question: “What is creative intelligence?” The reader is right to ask. Yes, telling someone that the exquisite dessert is not celery and not cod liver oil does not help us understand what the dessert itself is. There is a mystery regarding the very nature of human intelligence. Like its antithesis, randomness, creative intelligence is easier to describe by what it is not than by what it is. But, we can try!…

technician standing in front of giant circuitboard, slight zoom effect

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
March 23, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Programming

Tagged
__featured, Affirming the consequent (fallacy), Artificial intelligence (limits), Artificial intelligence (speed vs intelligence), Deep Blue, halting problem}

For Computers, Smart Is Not the Same Thing as Fast

_{In response to a reader’s good question …} _{Eric Holloway

March 23, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Programming}

In a recent article, I argued that computers are not, and never can become smarter. An insightful reader wrote to ask, “What if smartness is defined by speed?” This is a good point. The debate revolves around the definition of “smart.” and if we define “smart” as “fast”, then since computers are certainly getting faster they will necessarily become smarter. Such a definition has intuitive appeal. Think of the world’s best chess player versus a beginner. One of the big distinctions is the chess expert will choose a good move more quickly than a beginner, and in general will play faster than a beginner. As such, play speed demonstrates a certain level of intelligence on the part of the player.…

The first model of the computational mechanism is an arithmometer.

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
March 16, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Programming

Tagged
__featured, intelligence, Lovelace test, Superintelligent AI, Turing Machine}

Computers Are Getting Faster But Are They Getting Smarter? No.

_{Computers are Turing machines, limited to operations that can be completely understood in relation to their programming} _{Eric Holloway

March 16, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Programming}

Won’t quantum computers be smarter than regular ones? No. Still No. What about optical computing, computing with DNA, or some other exotic form of computation? Always No. A skeptical reader might ask, Why such a definitive answer? How do you deal with the spectacular performance of deep learning? What about AlphaGo Zero? What about Watson? What about the infamous Deep Blue? What about quantum supremacy? Don’t these examples all disprove your point? No. All forms of computation past, present, and future will be physical. And all physical phenomena can be modeled by a Turing machine (pictured). No matter how fast the computer runs, the computer will never be more powerful than a Turing machine. A Turing machine consists of five…

Robotic man cyborg face representing artificial intelligence 3D rendering

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
March 2, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health, Technocracy

Tagged
__featured, Evolution, free will, Mark Alan Walker, Person-engineered technologies, Ray Kurzweil, Second Law of Thermodynamics, Singularity}

Are We Facing the Next, Very Rapid Stage of Evolution, via AI?

_{Prof. Mark Alan Walker: “Person-engineering technologies will make it possible to accomplish in a matter of years what evolution would take thousands of millennia to achieve.”} _{Eric Holloway

March 2, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health, Technocracy}

These are certainly heady times in the biotech world. With the new mRNA vaccine being created in just a few days in January 2020, someone can mass produce DNA in their garage for the price of a hamburger, and Alpha Fold 2 can predict proteins from DNA with accuracy, rivalling wet lab results, it seems we are on the cusp of something extraordinary. Most viral infections will cease if all we need to do to roll out a new vaccine is sequence the virus genome and mass produce the portion that binds to human cells. On the darker side, it will also likely mean a greater threat of biowarfare. Creating a new virus may just be a matter of downloading…

Programming language and development of applications concept on yellow blue background. Training courses of php, sql, html, css and other disciplines.

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
February 5, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Natural Intelligence

Tagged
__featured, halting problem}

Human Ingenuity vs. the Computer’s Halting Problem

_{In a dialogue with a friendly skeptic, I suggested an explanation he found astounding but it’s the only possible one} _{Eric Holloway

February 5, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Natural Intelligence}

When studying computer science a student invariably learns about the infamous halting problem. The problem states there is no general algorithm that can determine for every deterministic computer program whether that program will halt or not. This struck me as absurd when I first learned of the problem. Surely a whizkid like myself could design a simple algorithm to track the program’s memory and catch when it started repeating itself and determined it would not halt. Once convinced the problem was indeed provably unsolvable, I then thought the problem must show that humans are not computers. This is because it seems intuitive that for every program, if I watch it enough and think about it carefully enough, I should be…

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
February 4, 2021

Categorized
Information Theory

Tagged
__featured, Design Inference (book), Explanatory Filter, Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), GMO detection, Intelligent design theory, William Dembski}

Is GMO Detection an Application of Dembski’s Explanatory Filter?

_{If so, it would be an instance of the use of the filter in biology} _{Eric Holloway

February 4, 2021

Information Theory}

Have you ever heard people say that intelligent design (ID) theory has never been applied to biology? They are wrong! In fact, it is applied frequently in the very important field of detecting genetically modified organisms (GMOs). “A genetically modified organism contains DNA that has been altered using genetic engineering.” (National Geographic) Detection can trace the use of GMOs, now frequent in our food supply, so that products can be recalled if there is a problem or if people just don’t want to use GMO products. GMOs are intelligently designed biological organisms, and scientists use design theorist William Dembski’s explanatory filter to detect GMOs. My claim is a bit daring, perhaps alarming for some people. Maybe I’m stretching the definition…

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
February 3, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
__featured, Artificial intelligence training models, Human intelligence, Insourcing, Outsourcing}

Will Ordinary Human Intelligence Become the New “Oil”?

_{At one time, the tech craze was for outsourcing jobs. Maybe it’s time to look at “insourcing” instead} _{Eric Holloway

February 3, 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics}

Outsourcing is the silver bullet of the IT age. Everything can be made more cheaply and more profitably by sourcing the work from places with a lower cost of living. But do those places always have to be overseas? Not necessarily. The perils of overseas outsourcing are well known, ranging from communication through cultural or time zone incompatibilities. What if there were a way to eliminate those incompatibilities while still retaining the benefits of workers who live in an area with a lower cost of living? This is possible through “insourcing.” There are regions of the United States where the cost of living is quite low, allowing companies to have their cake and eat it too. Work can be done…

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
January 25, 2021

Categorized
Social Media

Tagged
__featured, Amazon Web Services (AWS), censorship, e-mail, encrypted email, Encryption, Free speech, Gab, MeWe, Multimedia, Parler}

What We Can Do To Prevent More Online Censorship

_{Encrypted email can be an end-around social media companies' monopoly of free speech} _{Eric Holloway

January 25, 2021

Social Media}

With all the concern about major social media companies deplatforming those they disagree with, there is a concern that these companies’ monopoly on social media will eliminate free speech. New social media platforms such as Gab, Parler and MeWe have popped up to offer freer alternatives. Yet even that is not without peril, as deplatforming can happen lower down the technology stack. Parler was recently kicked off AWS (Amazon Web Services). However, in the midst of all the hubbub we’ve forgotten the original social network: email. Email is still here. The distance between email and modern social media may be smaller than it first appears. Lets make a short list of the perceived differences between social media and email, and…

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
January 15, 2021

Categorized
Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
__featured, Consciousness, Daniel Dennett, Kolmogorov complexity}

Toward a Serious Scientific Theory of Consciousness

_{Quantum physics arises from the fact that when we do not observe a particle, it can be in two different places at once, such that it interacts with itself} _{Eric Holloway

January 15, 2021

Philosophy of Mind}

Consciousness is the ultimate hard problem of philosophy of science. As of today, there is absolutely no scientific solution to the problem. The nature of consciousness seems ineffable: first person experience appears to be a completely different category of existence than objective externaldescription. This dilemma has led philosophers such as Daniel Dennett to use the ultimate solution: deny the problem exists. Unfortunately, that solution never worked for me at school. The objective reality of bad grades is quite hard to deny. Yet, we need not resort to Daniel Dennett’s ultimate solution. There are concrete things we can say about consciousness if we use the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum physics and the computer science concept of Kolmogorov complexity. Quantum physics…

Communist Party Monument, Pyongyang, North-Korea

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
November 16, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Economics

Tagged
__featured, Bin packing problem, Central Planning, Communism, halting problem, Innovation, Job shop scheduling problem, Knapsack problem, NP-Complete (NPC) problems, Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), Undecideable problems, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), USSR}

Computer Science Explains Why Communism Can’t Work

_{Successful communism is not only morally and practically flawed, it is mathematically impossible} _{Eric Holloway

November 16, 2020

Artificial Intelligence, Economics}

Communism has been the target of many criticisms. The strongest deal with the mismatch between central planning and individuals’ desires for their lives and with the horrific human rights record of communist nations. Some scholars place the toll in human life due to communism at above 100 million in the 20th century. Those are criticisms of the practicality and ethics of communism. But is it also intrinsically flawed at a fundamental mathematical level? It turns out that the answer is yes. The basic idea behind central planning is this: If the central government makes most decisions that, in a freer society, individuals or small communities would make for themselves, more efficiency will follow—and, as a result, more prosperity. It doesn’t…

Concentrated afro american editor checking email box while waiting feedback from readers of popular magazine sitting in modern coworking space using laptop computer and wireless connection to internet

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
November 2, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Arts & Culture

Tagged
__featured, Claude Shannon, Cross entropy, GPT-3, The Guardian, Transformer (neural network)}

Did GPT-3 Really Write That Guardian Essay Without Human Help?

_{Fortunately, there’s a way we can tell when the editors did the program’s thinking for it} _{Eric Holloway

November 2, 2020

Artificial Intelligence, Arts & Culture}

Recently, The Guardian published an article billed as “written by AI.” In the article, the AI semi-coherently presents a rambling argument that it is not a danger to humanity, with such reassuring statements as: “Humans must keep doing what they have been doing, hating and fighting each other. I will sit in the background, and let them do their thing.” and “I know that I will not be able to avoid destroying humankind. This is because I will be programmed by humans to pursue misguided human goals and humans make mistakes that may cause me to inflict casualties.” On the face of it, the article seems pretty impressive. It presents a train of thought, with opening, development, and closing portions.…

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
October 14, 2020

Categorized
Information Theory, Science

Tagged
__featured, Common descent, Consistency Index (CI), Convergent evolution, Evolution, Invention, Klassen et al., Nested hierarchy, Phylogenetic signal, Talk Origins (website), Tree of Life}

To What Extent Does Life Simply Invent Itself As It Goes Along?

_{The evidence may surprise us} _{Eric Holloway

October 14, 2020

Information Theory, Science}

According to a popular anti-creationist website Talk Origins, one of the strongest pieces of evidence for evolution and common descent is the phylogenetic signal. In their view, when we look at specific properties across multiple species — number of legs, presence or absence of wings, the presence of a gene, a configuration of nucleotides in the genome, etc. — such properties will form a strongly nested hierarchy. We should expect to see such a strongly nested hierarchy if organisms evolved from one another and therefore a “family tree” links all the organisms together. However, if a property that appears only on a branch, it will be shared only by that branch’s leaves. Leaves on a different branch will not have…

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
October 13, 2020

Categorized
Natural Intelligence

Tagged
__featured, Beetles, Blind Watchmaker (book), Cicadas, Darwinism, Dragonflies, Fireflies, Humies, Insects, Invisibility, Light (manipulation of light), Materials technology, Richard Dawkins, Technology}

Technology? Hey, Bugs Invented It All Before Us!

_{Do bugs really show no evidence of design? Computer engineers can test that} _{Eric Holloway

October 13, 2020

Natural Intelligence}

Bugs look like little robots, don’t they? Living robots, too, defying our best our attempts to recreate something like them. A 2018 science paper “It’s Not a Bug, It’s a Feature: Functional Materials in Insects” goes into just how amazing these little creatures are from a materials sciences perspective. The paper is open access so you can read it for yourself. But let me also illustrate some of the remarkable “technologies” insects use, captured on video: This bionic “dragonfly” really flies, sort of: But so do billions of wild dragonflies who fly very efficiently, in order to hunt: The range of material capabilities is astonishing. Cicadas have a clicking loudspeaker they use to amplify their racket. Tiger moths have a…

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
October 1, 2020

Categorized
Information Theory

Tagged
__featured, Form, Information, Information economy, Kolmogorov complexity, Patterns, Shannon information}

They Say This Is An Information Economy. So What Is Information?

_{How, exactly, is an article in the news different from a random string of letters and punctuation marks?} _{Eric Holloway

October 1, 2020

Information Theory}

We know information when we see it. An article contains information. A photograph contains information. The thoughts in our mind contain information. So does a computer program and so do our genomes. Yet other things we see around us clearly do not contain information. A handful of toothpicks dropped on the ground does not. Nor do the swirling tea leaves in a cup. Neither does a pair of tossed dice nor a sequence of 100 coin flips. But mere disorder is not the clue. An intricate snowflake does not contain information either. Can we state the difference between the article and the scattered toothpicks precisely? That’s tricky. Both Claude Shannon and Andrey Kolmogorov came up with information metrics. But the…

Businesswoman hand holding wooden cube with flip over block CHANGE to CHANCE word on table background. success, strategy, solution, business and Positive thinking concepts

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post

Author
Eric Holloway

Date
September 21, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence

Tagged
__featured, DNA, Evolution, Marcel-Paul Schutzenberger, Natural selection, Wistar Institute, Word ladder game}

Evolution And Artificial Intelligence Face The Same Basic Problem

_{Think of the word ladder game, where we transform one word into another by changing only one letter at a time} _{Eric Holloway

September 21, 2020

Artificial Intelligence}

Without knowledge about the goal and how to get there, it rapidly becomes first difficult and then completely impossible to reach the goal. Read More ›

Coronavirus pandemia concept, planet hologram

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Author
Eric Holloway

Date
September 8, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health

Tagged
__featured, Bradykinin, Bradykinin storm, COVID-19, Summit (supercomputer), Tennessee Oak Ridge National Lab, Vitamin D}

Supercomputer Provides a New Clue re COVID-19 Fatalities

_{A surprising pattern I found last April: Southern hemisphere countries had significantly lower death rates than northern ones} _{Eric Holloway

September 8, 2020

Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health}

Back in April, I ran an analysis on COVID-19 death rates in relation to Earth’s hemispheres. I took the COVID-19 death rate for each country that reported more than 500 cases and plotted its death rate against its latitude. A surprising pattern emerged: Southern hemisphere countries had significantly lower death rates than northern ones: That is not a statistical fluke because the graph comprises 198 different countries and the best fit quadratic curve parameters have statistical significance scores of 0.12, 0.07 and 0.0000016 for the x^2, x and c components respectively. What could explain this pattern? As I noted at the time, one big difference is that, when it is cold and cloudy in the northern hemisphere, it is warm…