^CategoryMathematics

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 30, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics

Tagged
Bayes’ Rule, Bayesian reasoning, False positives, Featured, HIV, Probability, Risk, Screening tests, Thomas Bayes}

Can an 18th Century Statistician Help Us Think More Clearly?

_{Distinguishing between types of probability can help us worry less and do more} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 30, 2020

6

Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics}

Thomas Bayes (1702–1761) (pictured), a statistician and clergyman, developed a theory of decision-making which was only discussed after his death and only became important in the 20th century. It is now a significant topic in philosophy, in the form of Bayesian epistemology. Understanding Bayes’ Rule may be essential to making good decisions. Let’s say that you are a generally healthy person and have no symptoms of any illness and no specific risk factors for any illness. Acting on a friend’s suggestion, you get screened for a variety of diseases, just to be sure. Of the diseases you test for, the HIV test comes back positive. You read on the package that the test is 99.6% accurate. Are you more likely…

Educated school kid lifting world globe chalk doodle drawing on green chalkboard for education concept

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 26, 2020

Categorized
Education, Mathematics, Programming

Tagged
Bolt-ons (programming), Featured, Legacy code, Mathematics symbols, Pythagorean theorem, Refactoring (programming)}

To Fix Math Education, See It as a Program That Needs an Update

_{As a computer programmer, I’ve seen this problem in my work: The basic idea is still sound but “fixes” have made it too complex} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 26, 2020

6

Education, Mathematics, Programming}

In this series we are looking at ways that math education can be reformed. In contrast to some other math reform efforts, we are not trying to fundamentally rewrite what math education is doing but to simply admit that we can do better and see where that takes us. (See Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.) Here in Part 4, let’s look at specific content issues that, I will argue, we could improve when we do a curriculum revision. Mathematics is an old subject. We have inherited quite a bit of mathematical thought. We must educate future generations so as to make sure that this hard-won knowledge is not lost. But one of the biggest impediments to our task…

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 25, 2020

Categorized
Education, Mathematics, Work

Tagged
Careers, Featured, Logical skills, Motivation, Prime components, reason, Reasoning tools}

Helping Students See How Math Benefits Them in the Long Run

_{To keep them motivated, we need to answer the “Why bother?” question honestly and directly} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 25, 2020

5

Education, Mathematics, Work}

In this series we are looking at ways that math education can be reformed. In contrast to some other math reform efforts, we are not trying to fundamentally rewrite what math education is doing but to simply admit that we can do better and see where that takes us. (See Part 1 and Part 2.) Here in Part 3, we will concentrate on making the curriculum more “conscious” of what students are supposed to be learning in mathematics. One of the primary complaints students have about higher mathematics is that they don’t see where they are going to use the information later in their jobs. There are a number of ways of answering this question but first I want to…

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 24, 2020

Categorized
Education, Mathematics

Tagged
Arithmetic, Common Core math, Dyslexia, Featured, Math curriculum goals, Mathematical ability (in students)}

Straight Talk About Fitting the Math Curriculum to the Student

_{We need to avoid pushing too much too soon, lest students come to see themselves as “bad at math” when they are just not ready for it} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 24, 2020

6

Education, Mathematics}

In this series we are looking at ways that math education can be reformed (Part 1 here). In contrast to some other math reform efforts, we are not trying to fundamentally rewrite what math education is doing but to simply admit that we can do better and see where that takes us. This article, Part 2, will concentrate on improving math education by better identifying where students are when we encounter them. Mathematics curriculum is generally developed with a goal of “fitting it all in.” That is, educators assume that people learn at a relatively fixed pace. They then pace the lessons so as to fit all of them into the curriculum in the right amount of time. However, this…

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
November 23, 2020

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Andrew Capron, Dot-com bubble, Featured, Francis Galton, Jack Treynor, Jelly bean experiment, Marcus Lee, Planet Money (radio), South Sea Bubble, Statistics, Steve Jobs, Tulip Bubble, Warren Buffett, Wisdom of Crowds (book)}

The Wisdom of Crowds: Are Crowds Really Wiser Than Individuals?

_{According to the theory, with a large number of guessers, the median number is very likely to be close to the true value} _{Gary Smith

November 23, 2020

9

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

Statistician Sir Francis Galton went to a country fair in 1907 where a prize was to be awarded to the person who made the most accurate guess of the butchered weight of an ox that was on display. Galton collected and analyzed the 787 guesses and, not surprisingly, found that some guesses were far too high and others were much too low. However, the average guess (1,197 pounds) was only 1 pound lower than the actual weight (1,198 pounds). The average was more accurate than the guesses of the vast majority of both the amateurs and the experts. In the 1980s, a finance professor named Jack Treynor (1930–2016) performed a similar, and now legendary, experiment with jelly beans. Professor Treynor…

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan Bartlett
Date
November 23, 2020

Categorized
Education, Mathematics

Tagged
Featured, Mathematics education reform}

How Can We Really Fix the Way Math Is Taught?

_{First, we must understand why we teach math in the first place} _{Jonathan Bartlett

November 23, 2020

4

Education, Mathematics}

Many people recognize that there are problems with modern mathematics curricula. However, the solutions proposed by current would-be math reformers are, I fear, worse than the cure. Some reformers want to stop having kids memorize their arithmetic facts, some want kids to just use computers to solve their problems, others think that the way we teach mathematics is racist, and still others seem to want to just greatly reduce the quantity of math education altogether. In this first part of a four-part series of short posts, I want to look at the most basic question: Why do we teach math? Earlier this month, an article by Yoree Koh in the Wall Street Journal took a look at the “Movement to…

^{Type
post

Author
Robert J. Marks
Date
October 5, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics, Natural Intelligence

Tagged
Bird intelligence, Featured, Ivan Pavlov, Marilyn vos Savant, Monty Hall, Monty Hall Problem, Monty Hall Problem analysis, Paul Erdős, Pigeons}

Pigeons Can Solve the Monty Hall Problem. But Can You?

_{The dilemma pits human folk intuition against actual probability theory, with surprising results} _{Robert J. Marks

October 5, 2020

6

Mathematics, Natural Intelligence}

Animals often outperform humans. My son’s dog is more friendly than I could ever be. Cheetahs run faster, baby horses walk earlier, and elephants can lift more. Birds fly and humans can’t. Is there anything else birds can do better than humans? Yes. Apparently, pigeons learn to solve the Monty Hall problem more quickly. Let’s Make a Deal was a television game show first hosted by Monty Hall (1921–2017) in 1963. There have been various remakes since then. The basic idea is that there are three doors and a contestant’s job is to barter with Monty for the most valuable prize behind the doors. The Monty Hall problem, loosely based on the quiz show, was popularized by Marilyn vos Savant…

Girl business woman sitting at a wooden table with a laptop and discussing a new project with her mentor boss teacher. The man is fooling around. New business development concept

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
September 24, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics

Tagged
Featured, Intelligence quotient (IQ), IQ, marriage, Regression toward the mean, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Spouses, Statistics}

Why Intelligent Women Marry Less Intelligent Men

_{Are they trying to avoid competition at home as well as at work? Or is there a statistical reason we are overlooking?} _{Gary Smith

September 24, 2020

7

Mathematics}

When I read that Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s late husband was a wonderful man but less accomplished than his wife, I was reminded of “Ivy,” one of the most impressive students I ever had the privilege to teach. Ivy excelled in her coursework, won a prestigious scholarship for postgraduate study in England, went to a top-five law school, clerked for a Supreme Court Justice, and is now a law professor at a great university. Like Ruth Ginsberg (1933–2020, pictured), Ivy married a man who is very nice but less intelligent than she. This is not an unusual situation. I made a list of the dozen most intelligent female students with whom I’ve kept in touch over the years. These women are…

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith and Jay Cordes
Date
August 17, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics

Tagged
Cancer (causes), Electromagnetic fields (EMFs), Featured, Klaus Teuber, Power lines, Probability, Settlers of Catan (board game), Statistics}

In Science, We Can’t Just “Settle” for Data Clusters

_{The board game, Settlers of Catan, offers a clear illustration of what can go wrong when we are duped by data clusters} _{Gary Smith and Jay Cordes

August 17, 2020

7

Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics}

Settlers of Catan is an incredible board game created by Klaus Teuber, a German game designer. It has been translated into dozens of languages and tens of millions of sets have been sold. The basic four-player board consists of 19 hexagons (hexes) representing resources: 3 brick, 4 lumber, 4 wool, 4 grain, 3 ore, and 1 desert. Players acquire and use resources based on dice rolls, card draws, trading, and the location of their settlements and cities. Part of the game’s seductive appeal is that there are many, many ways to arrange the 19 hexagons and successful strategies depend on how the hexagons are arranged. The rules are simple but winning strategies are complex and elusive. The official rules of…

tropical hurricane approaching the USA.Elements of this image are furnished by NASA.

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
August 10, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics

Tagged
Featured, Hurricane Bill, Hurricane names, Hurricane Sandy, Hurricanes, Juanita Kreps, Roxcy Bolton}

Female Hurricanes: How A Mass of Hot Air Became a Zombie Study

_{When a reporter first asked me about a study claiming that “Female Hurricanes are Deadlier than Male Hurricanes,” I was skeptical} _{Gary Smith

August 10, 2020

7

Mathematics}

It is once again hurricane season on the East Coast and social media are reliably abuzz with reports of a debunked study that claimed that hurricanes given feminine-sounding names are deadlier than those given masculine-sounding names. (Full disclosure: I was one of the debunkers.) When a reporter initially asked me about this study, titled “Female Hurricanes are Deadlier than Male Hurricanes,” I was skeptical. Hurricane names alternate between female and male on a schedule set before the hurricane season begins so any relationship between name and death toll was surely coincidental. I looked at the study and discovered that the authors were not arguing that female hurricanes are inherently deadlier but that sexist humans die because they don’t take female…

man riding on self balancing board graffiti

^{Type
post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
July 13, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Lichtman, Data Mining, Donald Trump, Elections, Featured, Helmut Norpoth, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John von Neumann, Merlin Heidemanns, Overfitting data, predictions}

Election Models: Predicting the Past is Easy — and Useless

_{You can seldom see where you are going by looking in a rear-view mirror} _{Gary Smith

July 13, 2020

8

Mathematics}

I told my students that I had a model that predicted the popular vote for the the last ten presidential elections (1980–2016) perfectly. Read More ›

Groupe de Bonobos autour d'un hôtel à insectes

^{Type
post

Author
Michael Egnor
Date
July 12, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics, Natural Intelligence, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
___longform, Abstractions, Animal Intelligence, Bonobos, Designators, Featured, Gay A. Bradshaw, Language, Mathematics, Sue Savage-Rumbaugh, symbols}

Can Animal Minds Rival Humans Under the Right Circumstances?

_{Are we just not being fair to animals, as some researchers think?} _{Michael Egnor

July 12, 2020

8

Mathematics, Natural Intelligence, Philosophy of Mind}

In 2007, Sue Savage-Rumbaugh, a psychologist and primatologist , published a paper in the Journal of Applied Animal Welfare Science with a remarkable citation: Sue Savage-Rumbaugh, Kanzi Wamba, Panbanisha Wamba, and Nyota Wamba, “Welfare of Apes in Captive Environments: Comments on, and by, a Specific Group of Apes,” Journal of Applied Animal Welfare Science 10:1 (2007): 7–19. What is remarkable about the paper is not the text but the authorship statement. Kanzi, Panbanisha, and Nyota Wamba are not co-author colleagues—they’re apes, bonobos to be specific. Dr. Savage-Rumbaugh (right) is a controversial scientist who believes that animals have intellectual powers that can, under the right circumstances, rival the human intellect. She included her ape subjects as co-authors on the paper because…

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway
Date
June 29, 2020

Categorized
Information Theory, Mathematics

Tagged
Conservation of Information (COI), Featured, John Bell, Robert J. Marks, William Dembski}

Why is Bell’s Theorem Important for Conservation of Information?

_{Proving a negative is difficult. Demonstrating that there are no leafy green crows is hard to do without examining every crow. But there's another way.} _{Eric Holloway

June 29, 2020

4

Information Theory, Mathematics}

Proving a negative is difficult. Think about it. For example, demonstrating that there are no leafy green crows is hard to do without exhaustively examining every crow in existence. On the other hand, proving there are no crows naturally emblazoned with the text of the King James Bible is a bit easier to do. Proving a negative is possible if the extremes are large enough. Such as result is known as a no-go theorem. One of the most profound no-go theorems can be found in quantum physics. Physicist John Bell (1928–1990) proved — entirely from first principles — that there is a fundamental difference between how particles interact classically compared with how they interact within quantum physics. In classical physics,…

^{Type
post

Author
Robert J. Marks
Date
June 4, 2020

Categorized
Arts & Culture, Mathematics

Tagged
Big Bang Theory (sitcom), Cantor’s theory of the infinite, Featured, Max Tegmark, Multiverse}

Is Big Bang Theory’s Sheldon Right re the Multiverse?

_{Sheldon Cooper insists that in no universe would he dance with Penny} _{Robert J. Marks

June 4, 2020

6

Arts & Culture, Mathematics}

A collection of universes is called a multiverse. If there are enough universes in a multiverse, can almost anything happen? No. Common models of the universe aren’t big enough. The argument that anything can happen in a multiverse is nicely presented in a 2011 scene in the sitcom The Big Bang Theory (2007–2019) involving consummate nerd Sheldon Cooper and Penny, the girl next door (here). Penny: Morning, Sheldon! Come dance with me! Sheldon: No. Penny: Why not? Sheldon: While I subscribe to the Many Worlds theory, which posits the existence of an infinite number of Sheldons in an infinite number of universes, I assure you that in none of them I am dancing. Penny: Are you fun in any of…

medical statistics and graphic charts with stethoscope

^{Type
post

Author
Heather Zeiger
Date
May 26, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics, Medicine and Health, Social Media

Tagged
___longform, 91-DIVOC, COVID-19, Featured, Statistics}

Making Sense of the Numbers Behind COVID-19

_{Media and politicians put statistics before us to sway our opinions. But what do they really mean?} _{Heather Zeiger

May 26, 2020

9

Mathematics, Medicine and Health, Social Media}

Numbers can frighten or enlighten. The secret is making them explain themselves. Here’s a quick primer.

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
May 19, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Programming

Tagged
___longform, Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing, B. V. Bowden, Charles Babbage, Featured, Gary Smith, Lovelace test, Mary Somerville, Selmer Bringsjord, Turing Test}

Lovelace: The Programmer Who Spooked Alan Turing

_{Ada Lovelace understood her mentor Charles Babbage’s plans for his new Analytical Engine and was better than he at explaining what it could do} _{News

May 19, 2020

9

Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Programming}

Turing thought that computers could be got to think. Thus he had to address Lovelace’s objection from a century earlier, that they could not be creative.

^{Type
post

Author
Michael Egnor
Date
May 13, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
Featured, free will, Jerry Coyne, Logic, Physics, Sean Carroll}

Physicist Rejects Free Will — and Thus Fails Logic

_{If we accepted his argument for materialism, we would have to stop believing in it—a curious, self-refuting result} _{Michael Egnor

May 13, 2020

7

Mathematics, Philosophy of Mind}

Carroll’s argument that man is wholly governed by physics is self-refuting. Because physics and logic share no commonality, materialists like Carroll implicitly assert that their own arguments lack logic. One might say that the only thing materialists get right is that their ideas are nonsense. If man is all physics, he can have no logic.

If Then logic statement written in white chalk on a black chalkboard isolated on white

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
May 10, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Religion

Tagged
___longform, Featured, Formal logic, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, Kurt Gödel, Mathematics, Rene Descartes, Robert J. Marks, Saint Anselm, Selmer Bringsjord}

Gödel and God: A Surprising History

_{A thought-provoking account of master logician Gödel’s largely unknown proof of the existence of God} _{News

May 10, 2020

11

Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Religion}

In an unsanitized, politically incorrect (but factual) history, Selmer Bringsjord talks about how the tormented genius Kurt Gödel took up a quest that dated back a thousand years to prove the existence of God by formal logic. His original version didn’t quite work but his editor’s version passed an important logic test.

^{Type
post

Author
Eric Holloway
Date
March 29, 2020

Categorized
Mathematics, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
J. R. Lucas, Kurt Gödel, Leonid Levin, Logicomix (comic book), Vienna Circle}

Math Shows Why the Mind Is Not Just a Formula

_{The Liar’s Paradox shows that even mathematics cannot be reduced to a fixed set of axioms} _{Eric Holloway

March 29, 2020

4

Mathematics, Philosophy of Mind}

Gödel’s discovery brought back a sense of wonder to mathematics and to the rest of human knowledge. His incompleteness theorem underlies the fact that human investigation can never exhaust all that can be known. Every discovery builds a path to a new discovery.

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
March 28, 2020

Categorized
Education, Mathematics

Tagged
calculus, Featured, Jonathan Bartlett, Mathematics Magazine}

Bartlett’s Calculus Paper Reviewed in Mathematics Magazine

_{The paper offers fixes for long-standing flaws in the teaching of elementary calculus} _{News

March 28, 2020

2

Education, Mathematics}

Jonathan Bartlett tells us, “The review was mixed, but most importantly the reviewer didn’t disagree with the results, only their potential usefulness."