^TagP-hacking and electoral predictions

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 8, 2024

Categorized
Politics, Probability

Tagged
2016 US election predictions, Alan Lichtman, Featured, P-hacking and electoral predictions, Predicting vs. explaining, Thirteen Keys to the White House}

P-Hacking: The Perils of Presidential Election Models

_{History professor Alan Lichtman’s model uses 13 true/false questions reflecting likely voter interests. But some of them seem rather subjective} _{Gary Smith
October 8, 2024

7

Politics, Probability}

Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House prediction model for the presidency shows some evidence of p-hacking, as does Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model. Read More ›

High-tech American election coverage in a futuristic studio

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 7, 2024

Categorized
Politics, Probability, Science

Tagged
Electoral predictions, Harvest Moon Festival and seniors' deaths, Helmut Norpoth, P-hacking and electoral predictions, Primary Model of Helmut Norpoth}

Presidential Pundits—a P-Hacking Parable

_{In politics, as elsewhere, too many studies flop when other researchers attempt to replicate them with fresh data} _{Gary Smith
October 7, 2024

7

Politics, Probability, Science}

Some prediction models were developed by well-intentioned researchers before the perils of p-hacking were clearly understood, hence the failures. Read More ›