^{ Type post AuthorRobert J. Marks Date June 29, 2021 Categorized Mathematics, Science Tagged A Treatise on Probability (book), Big Bang, Conservation of Information (COI), Introduction to Evolutionary Informatics (book), Jacob Bernoulli, John Maynard Keynes, No Free Lunch theorems, Principle of Insufficient Reason (PrOIR) }

## No Free Lunches: Bernoulli is Right, Keynes is Wrong

_{What the Big Bang teaches us about nothing}

_{ Robert J. Marks June 29, 2021 5 Mathematics, Science }

Jacob Bernoulli made a now obvious observation about probability over three-and-a-half centuries ago: If nothing is known about the outcome of a random event, all outcomes can be assumed to be equally probable. Bernoulli’s Principle of Insufficient Reason (PrOIR) is commonly used. Throw a fair die. There are six outcomes, one for each face of the cube. The chance of getting five pips showing on the roll of a die is therefore one sixth. If a million lottery tickets are sold and you buy one ticket, the chances of winning are one in a million. This reasoning is intuitively obvious. The assumption about the die is wrong if the die is loaded. But you don’t know that. You know nothing. So Bernoulli’s PrIOR Read More ›