At his Substack last week, AI analyst Gary Marcus went after social media influencer hype about AI and offered
a revealing statistic from CNBC as an alternative:

● 79% of survey correspondents said they had tried Microsoft Copilot. That’s tremendous, given how new the product is (and a clear refutation of any “people are ignoring AI” narrative).

● But only 25% of the correspondents thought it was worth it. (Another quarter said the modest $30/month cost was not worth it, and the remaining half said it was too soon to tell.)

“AI influencer hype gone wild,” October 31, 2024

His skeptical comment, “People aren’t ignoring GenAI; they are waiting to see if it will work,” stands in sharp contrast to claims from influencers that we just don’t understand it or don’t see its potential and so forth.

There is potential for useful applications, certainly — but also for model collapse, hallucinations, and really bad advice.

Proceeding cautiously

CNBC notes that businesses are proceeding cautiously:

According to recent Deloitte research, two-thirds of organizations are increasing gen AI investments based on “strong early value to date.” However, when it comes to scaling that value, a different picture emerges. Many enterprise AI projects remain in what Deloitte refers to as the pilot or proof-of-concept stage, with over two-thirds of organizations saying they have moved 30% or fewer of their gen AI experiments into full production.

“Microsoft Copilot AI use extends deep into corporate America, but companies aren’t 100% sold,” October 29, 2024

That caution is borne of experience. Anyone remember Tay, Microsoft’s hastily yanked racist chatbot (2016)? There may be big opportunities but there are also big risks.

You may also wish to read: AI pessimists vs true believers: An increasing divide True believers don’t focus on short-term trends because they aren’t very positive. But they should be consistent with a long-term forecast. (Jeffrey Funk)