The problem with complex systems is that a lot can go wrong. It turns out that the number of potential problems grows exponentially as you add more factors to a system. Justin Bui and Samuel Haug discuss contingencies and artificial general intelligence with Robert J. Marks.

Show Notes

• 01:10 | Introducing Justin Bui and Sam Haug
• 01:28 | Exponential Explosion of Contingencies
• 08:20 | Avoiding Contingency Explosions
• 08:43 | Domain Expertise
• 13:09 | Standardization of the AI
• 15:15 | Four Types of Knowns
• 19:43 | Human Contingencies
• 22:25 | Pareto Trade-Off
• 24:41 | Doman Expertise and Forecasting

Additional Resources

•  Haug, Samuel, Robert J. Marks, and William A. Dembski. “Exponential Contingency Explosion: Implications for Artificial General Intelligence.” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems (2021).
• Why is it called Formula 409?
• The History of WD-40
• More on Pareto Efficiency