At MarketWatch, technology consultant Jeffrey Funk and business prof Gary Smith warn that it is looking that way.

The dot-com bubble of internet-based companies that ballooned in the 1990s burst around 2001–2002, when reality set in. They think the same thing will happen with chatbots and generative AI products like Midjourney.

They write,

We can compare the generative-AI bubble with the internet bubble by looking at revenues in 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble, and generative-AI revenues for 2024. One study estimates that 134 million PCs were sold in 2000, which at $5,101 per computer at that time equated to about $684 billion in revenue. The number of global internet users was about 361 million in 2000, which at $113 a month equals about $489 billion in revenue ($850 billion in 2024 dollars).

E-commerce also generated a lot of revenue in 2000. A March 2001 article reports that the market for e-commerce in 2000 was $286 billion ($500 billion in 2024 dollars). E-commerce has been a growing revenue stream as we have become accustomed to buying online.

Put these numbers together and the internet generated more than $1.5 trillion in revenue (in 2024 dollars) in 2000 — and the internet bubble still burst. Generative AI, on the other hand, is currently generating less than $10 billion. If the bubble bursts, it will be a very large pop.

“The AI bubble is looking worse than the dot-com bubble. Here’s why,” October 21, 2024

Perhaps the basic problem is that it’s not clear what chatbots and generative AI produce other than private entertainment. Chances are, you won’t be allowed to use a chatbot to write your essay. And, after you have made a goldfish fit into a pirate costume with generative AI, you could trade it for your neighbor’s cat-themed telephone pole art. But neither of you are building wealth. Maybe that’s the problem.