^TagGary Smith

Competition between humans and robots in tug of war concept

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post

Author
News
Date
October 29, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Work

Tagged
Automation (and job loss), Automation (prophecies and timeline), Creativity (and AI), Featured, Gary Smith, Jay Richards, Jeffrey Funk}

Robots Will NOT Steal Our Jobs, Business Analysts Show

_{Doomsayers typically do not factor in all components of the job that a robot would have to replace or all of the true costs of trying, they say} _{News

October 29, 2021

4

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Work}

At Fast Company, data analyst Jeffrey Funk and business prof Gary N. Smith dispute the claim that robots are coming for all our jobs. They point to a history of overblown claims: In 1965, Herbert Simon, who would later be awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics and the Turing Award (the “Nobel Prize of computing”), predicted that “machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do.” In 1970, Marvin Minsky, who also received the Turing Award, predicted that, “in from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” The implications for jobs were ominous, but robotic-takeover predictions have been in the air for a Read More ›

Majestic Unicorn posing in an enchanted forest

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post

Author
News
Date
August 18, 2021

Categorized
Business and Finance, Global Technology

Tagged
Business (new business track record), Featured, Gary Smith, Jeffrey Funk, Unicorn stocks (winners and losers)}

The Unicorn Might Be Very Profitable — If It Existed

_{The statistical reality is that most new businesses flop} _{News

August 18, 2021

3

Business and Finance, Global Technology}

Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith, well known to many of our readers, have just published an article at MarketWatch, warning against heedless optimism about “unicorn” stocks. As they put it, “The stock market unleashes its ‘animal spirits’ on an animal that doesn’t exist.” They begin by pointing out that most new businesses flop. The president of one venture capital company estimated the chance of success at one in 1,000. An SEC study of 500 randomly selected new issues found that 43% were confirmed bankrupt, 25% were losing money but still afloat, and 12% had disappeared without a trace. Of the remaining 20%, just 12 companies seemed solid successes — a scant 2% of the companies surveyed. Jeffrey Funk and Gary Read More ›

Cold fresh lemonade with slices of ripe lemons.

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post

Author
Gary Smith
Date
August 16, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance

Tagged
Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence, facial recognition technology, Gary Smith, Lemonade}

Insurance Company Gives Sour AI Promises

_{Data collection and discriminatory algorithms are turning Lemonade sour} _{Gary Smith

August 16, 2021

7

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance}

An insurance company with the quirky name Lemonade was founded in 2015 and went public in 2020. In addition to raising hundreds of millions of dollars from eager investors, Lemonade quickly attracted more than a million customers with the premise that artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can estimate risks accurately and that buying insurance and filing claims can be fun: Lemonade is built on a digital substrata — we use bots and machine learning to make insurance instant, seamless, and delightful. Adding to the delight are the friendly names of their bots, like AI Maya, AI Jim, and AI Cooper. The company doesn’t explain how its AI works, but there is this head-scratching boast: A typical homeowners policy form has 20-40 Read More ›

Prosthetic robotic arm with palm in fist, 3d rendering on black background

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post

Author
News
Date
May 25, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics, Medicine and Health, Philosophy of Mind

Tagged
Artificial intelligence (predictions), Daniel Kahneman (Guardian interview), Gary Smith, Jeffrey Funk, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (book), Ray Kurzweil, Tim Adam}

Nobel Prize Economist Tells The Guardian, AI Will Win

_{But when we hear why he thinks so, don’t be too sure} _{News

May 25, 2021

6

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics, Medicine and Health, Philosophy of Mind}

Nobel Prize-winning economist (2002) Daniel Kahneman, 87 (pictured), gave an interview this month to The Guardian in which he observed that belief in science is not much different from belief in religion with respect to the risks of unproductive noise clouding our judgment. He’s been in the news lately as one of the authors of a new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, which applies his ideas about human error and bias to organizations. He told The Guardian that he places faith “if there is any faith to be placed,” in organizations rather than individuals, for example. Curiously, he doesn’t seem to privilege science organizations: I was struck watching the American elections by just how often politicians of both Read More ›

Artificial intelligence concept. Robotic hand is holding human brain. 3D rendered illustration.

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post

Author
News
Date
May 5, 2021

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Medicine and Health

Tagged
AI takeover claims, Featured, Gary Smith, Human Brain Project (EU), IBM Watson (in medicine), Jeffrey Funk, Moonshots (in AI)}

Failed Prophecies of the Big “AI Takeover” Come at a Cost

_{Like IBM Watson in medicine, they don’t just fail; they take time, money, and energy from more promising digital innovations} _{News

May 5, 2021

4

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Medicine and Health}

Surveying the time line of prophecies that AI will take over “soon” is entertaining. At Slate, business studies profs Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith offer a whirlwind tour starting in the 1950s, with stops along the way at 1970 (“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being”) and at 2014: In 2014, Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence and will have all of the intellectual and emotional capabilities of humans, including “the ability to tell a joke, to be funny, to be romantic, to be loving, to be sexy.” As we move closer to 2029, Kurzweil talks more about 2045. Jeffrey Funk and Read More ›

Female doctor consoling senior woman wearing face mask during home visit

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post

Author
News
Date
December 25, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health

Tagged
AI in health care, Coffee, Doctors, Eric Holloway, Featured, Gary Smith, hype, Pancreatic cancer, Phantom patterns, Physicians, Robert J. Marks, Texas Sharpshooter Fallacies}

#8 in our AI Hype Countdown: AI Is Better Than Doctors!

_{Sick of paying for health care insurance? Guess what? AI is better ! Or maybe, wait…} _{News

December 25, 2020

7

Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health}

Merry Christmas! Our Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks has been interviewing fellow computer nerds (our Brain Trust) Jonathan Bartlett and Eric Holloway about 12 overhyped AI concepts of the year. From AI Dirty Dozen 2020 Part II. Now here’s #8. Sick of paying for health care insurance? Guess what? AI is better! Or maybe, wait… “Is AI really better than physicians at diagnosis?” starts at 01:25 Here’s a partial transcript. Show Notes and Additional Resources follow, along with a link to the complete transcript. Robert J. Marks: We’re told AI is going to replace lawyers and doctors and accountants and all sorts of people. So, let’s look at a case of the physicians. This was a piece on Read More ›

Digital binary code matrix background in graphic concept

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post

Author
News
Date
December 24, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Science

Tagged
Big Data, David Auerbach, Featured, Gary Smith, Jay Cordes, Phantom Pattern Problem (book), Phantom patterns}

Smith and Cordes’ Phantom Pattern Problem A Top 2020 Book

_{Published by Oxford in 2020, it deals with the “patterns” Big Data throws up that aren’t really there} _{News

December 24, 2020

5

Artificial Intelligence, Science}

David Auerbach has picked The Phantom Pattern Problem (2020) by Gary Smith and Jay Cordes as one of the top books of 2020 in the science and tech category. Auerbach, who describes himself as “a writer and software engineer, trying to bridge the two realms,” is the author of BITWISE: A Life in Code (2018). He has an interesting way of choosing books to recommend: Those that resist the “increasingly desperate and defensive oversimplification” of popular culture: I hesitate to mention too many other books for fear of neglecting the others, but I will say that of the science and technology books, several deal with subjects that are currently inundated with popularizations. In my eye, those below are notably superior Read More ›

Quitting smoking - male hand crushing cigarette

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post

Author
News
Date
December 10, 2020

Categorized
Education

Tagged
causation, Correlation, Gary Smith, John Ioannidis, Logic, Michael Egnor, Robert J. Marks, Spurious Correlations (website), Tobacco}

Yellow Fingers Do Not Cause Lung Cancer

_{Neurosurgeon Michael Egnor and computer engineer Bob Marks look at the ways Big Data can mislead us into mistaking incidental events for causes} _{News

December 10, 2020

6

Education}

It’s easy to explain what “information” is if we don’t think much about it. But what if we ask a student, what does your term paper weigh? How much energy does it consume? More or less matter and energy than, say, lightning striking a tree? Of course, the student will protest, “But that’s not the point! It’s my term paper.” Exactly. So information is very different from matter and energy. It means something. Realizing that information is different from matter and energy can help us understand issues like the difference between the causes of a problem (causation) and circumstances that may be associated with the problem but do not cause it (correlation). In last week’s podcast, “Robert J. Marks on Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
November 23, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health, Military

Tagged
AI in medicine, Ambiguity, Featured, Gary Smith, IBM Watson, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Jackie Whisman, Robert D. Atkinson, Terminator fears, The Case for Killer Robots, Winograd Schema}

AI Is Not Nearly Smart Enough to Morph Into the Terminator

_{Computer engineering prof Robert J. Marks offers some illustrations in an ITIF think tank interview} _{News

November 23, 2020

6

Artificial Intelligence, Medicine and Health, Military}

In a recent podcast, Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks spoke with Robert D.Atkinson and Jackie Whisman at the prominent AI think tank, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, about his recent book, The Case for Killer Robots—a plea for American military brass to see that AI is an inevitable part of modern defense strategies, to be managed rather than avoided. It may be downloaded free here. In this second part ( here’s Part 1), the discussion (starts at 6:31) turned to what might happen if AI goes “rogue.” The three parties agreed that AI isn’t nearly smart enough to turn into the Terminator: Jackie Whisman: Well, opponents of so-called killer robots, of course argue that the technologies can’t be Read More ›

3D Rendering of binary tunnel with led leading light. Concept for data mining, big data visualization, machine learning, data discovery technology, customer product analysis.

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
November 3, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Neuroscience, Science

Tagged
Big Data, Big Data Assumption, brain, computer, Featured, Gaming AI (book), Gary Smith, George Gilder, Modeling Assumption, Yuri Danilov}

The Brain Is Not a Computer and Big Data Is Not a Big Answer

_{These claims are mere tales from the AI apocalypse, as George Gilder tells it, in Gaming AI} _{News

November 3, 2020

4

Artificial Intelligence, Neuroscience, Science}

In Gaming AI, George Gilder (pictured) sets out six assumptions generally shared by those who believe that, in a Singularity sometime soon, we will merge with our machines. Some of these assumptions seem incorrect and they are certainly all discussable. So let’s look at the first two: • “The Modeling Assumption: A computer can deterministically model a brain.” (p. 50) That would be quite difficult because brains don’t function like computers: As neuroscientist Yuri Danilov said last year, “Right now people are saying, each synoptical connection is a microprocessor. So if it’s a microprocessor, you have 1012 neurons, each neuron has 105 synapses, so you have… you can compute how many parallel processing units you have in the brain if Read More ›

Artificial Intelligence. Composition on the subject of Future Technologies. 3d rendered graphics.

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post

Author
News
Date
October 23, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence

Tagged
Analog computers, Big Data, Charles Sanders Peirce, Featured, Gaming AI (book), Gary Smith, George Dyson, George Gilder, Interpretant, John Archibald Wheeler, Map vs. territory, Microcosm (book), Quantum Computing, Quantum Zeno effect, Robert J. Marks}

Why AI Geniuses Haven’t Created True Thinking Machines

_{The problems have been hinting at themselves all along} _{News

October 23, 2020

7

Artificial Intelligence}

As we saw yesterday, artificial intelligence (AI) has enjoyed a a string of unbroken successes against humans. But these are successes in games where the map is the territory. Therefore, everything is computable. That fact hints at the problem tech philosopher and futurist George Gilder raises in Gaming AI (free download here). Whether all human activities can be treated that way successfully is an entirely different question. As Gilder puts it, “AI is a system built on the foundations of computer logic, and when Silicon Valley’s AI theorists push the logic of their case to a “singularity,” they defy the most crucial findings of twentieth-century mathematics and computer science.” Here is one of the crucial findings they defy (or ignore): Read More ›

Crypto currency background with various of shiny silver and golden physical cryptocurrencies symbol coins, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, zcash, ripple

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post

Author
News
Date
October 10, 2020

Categorized
Business and Finance, Global Technology

Tagged
Amazon, Bill Gates, bitcoin, Coronavirus, COVID-19, COVID-19 Recession, Facebook, Featured, Gary Smith, Jack Dorsey, Libra, Warren Buffett}

Has COVID-19 Helped or Harmed Crypto and Blockchain?

_{Cryptocurrencies rebounded after an initial slump earlier this year} _{News

October 10, 2020

5

Business and Finance, Global Technology}

The recently aired discussion at COSM about the future of bitcoin and other privately minted cryptocurrencies took place last October, before COVID-19 was much thought of in the Western world. Catching up, the cryptos and blockchain had a rough ride earlier this year but they have stabilized recently. In February, as the pandemic sent markets scurrying, things were looking grim for the cryptos: During the last week, the spread of the coronavirus has been all over the news; the virus, which had remained well-contained in China, spread throughout South Korea, Iran, Italy, and is now reaching its fingers into other parts of Europe. The New York Times reported on Thursday that “the signs were everywhere…that the epidemic shaking much of Read More ›

Abstract 3d render, geometric composition, yellow background design with cubes

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post

Author
News
Date
September 30, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Science

Tagged
AI algorithms, Big Data, Carmen Reinhart, Featured, Gary Smith, Jay Cordes, Ken Rogoff, Meaningless patterns, Patterns, Phantom Pattern Problem (book), Science Journals}

Interview: New Book Outlines the Perils of Big (Meaningless) Data

_{Gary Smith, co-author with Jay Cordes of Phantom Patterns, shows why human wisdom and common sense are more important than ever now} _{News

September 30, 2020

5

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Science}

Economist Gary Smith and statistician Jay Cordes have a new book out, The Phantom Pattern Problem: The mirage of big data, on why we should not trust Big Data over common sense. In their view, it’s a dangerous mix: Humans naturally assume that all patterns are significant. But AI cannot grasp the meaning of any pattern, significant or not. Thus, from massive number crunches, we may “learn” (if that’s the right word) that Stock prices can be predicted from Google searches for the word debt. Stock prices can be predicted from the number of Twitter tweets that use “calm” words. An unborn baby’s sex can be predicted by the amount of breakfast cereal the mother eats. Bitcoin prices can be Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
September 21, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Peer Review

Tagged
Computing, Gary Smith, Nature Computational Science (journal), Springer Nature Group}

From Nature: A New, Topflight Computer Science Journal

_{Starting in January 2021, it proposes to tackle a key problem in computer use in science - replication of findings} _{News

September 21, 2020

4

Artificial Intelligence, Peer Review}

The Springer Nature Group is launching a new online-only journal,Nature Computational Science. It is described as a “dedicated home for computational science” and we are told: Recent advances in computer technology, be it in hardware or in software, have revolutionized the way researchers do science: problems that are too complex for human or analytical solutions are now easier to address; problems that would take years to solve can now be unraveled in days, hours, or even seconds. The use and development of advanced computing capabilities to analyse and solve scientific problems, also known as computational science, has undoubtedly played a key role in transformational scientific breakthroughs of our last century, making progress possible in many different disciplines. Elizabeth Hawkins, “A Read More ›

close-up view of robot playing chess, selective focus

^{Type
podcast

Author
Robert J. Marks and Larry L. Linenschmidt
Date
August 27, 2020

Tagged
AI Delusion (book), Alan Turing, algorithm, Algorithm-of-the-Gaps, Algorithmic Information Theory, algorithmic intelligence, AlphaGo, Ambiguity, Artificial Intelligence, China, Chinese Room, Computer History, Computer science, Creativity, David Gelernter, Deep Blue, Deep Learning, ethics, Gary Smith, George Gilder, Go (game), human brain, hype, IBM Watson, Jay Richards, Larry L. Linenschmidt, Neural networks, non-algorithmic, Peter Thiel, qualia, Quantum Computing, Reinforcement learning, Robert J. Marks, self-driving cars, STEM fields, Supercomputers, Swarm intelligence}

Bingecast: Robert J. Marks on the Limitations of Artificial Intelligence

_{Robert J. Marks and Larry L. Linenschmidt

August 27, 2020

2}

Robert J. Marks talks with Larry L. Linenschmidt of the Hill Country Institute about nature and limitations of artificial intelligence from a computer science perspective including the misattribution of creativity and understanding to computers. Other Larry L. Linenschmidt podcasts from the Hill Country Institute are available at HillCountryInstitute.org. We appreciate the permission of the Hill Country Institute to rebroadcast this Read More ›

White swan mask on black wooden surface. Empty space.

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
August 25, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence

Tagged
Big Data, Featured, Gary Smith, Jay Cordes, Patterns (in statistics), Phantom Pattern Problem (book)}

New Book Takes Aim at Phantom Patterns “Detected” by Algorithms

_{Human common sense is needed now more than ever, says economics professor Gary Smith} _{News

August 25, 2020

3

Artificial Intelligence}

Pomona College economics professor Gary Smith, author with Jay Cordes of The Phantom Pattern Problem (Oxford, October 1, 2020), tackles an age-old glitch in human thinking: We tend to assume that if we find a pattern, it is meaningful. Add that to the weaknesses of current artificial intelligence and “Houston, we have a problem,” he warns: The scientific method tests theories with data. Data-mining computer algorithms dispense with theory and search through data for patterns, often aided and abetted by slicing, dicing, and otherwise mangling data to create patterns. Gary Smith, “Phantom patterns: The big data delusion” at IAI News (August 24, 2020) Many of the patterns so detected are obviously spurious, for example: A computer algorithm for evaluating job Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
June 22, 2020

Categorized
Business and Finance, Global Technology

Tagged
cryptocurrency, Gary Smith, Jay Richards, Jonathan Bartlett, Steve Forbes}

Is Crypto Just a Flash in the Pan?

_{Or, to put it more bluntly, will blockchain ever grow up to be a real financial system? Forbes says yes, cautiously} _{News

June 22, 2020

3

Business and Finance, Global Technology}

Will blockchain and other non-government currencies ever grow up to be a real financial system? What about the weird Canadian crypto uproar in which the only a dead man knows the code to release the missing millions? Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
News
Date
May 19, 2020

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Programming

Tagged
___longform, Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing, B. V. Bowden, Charles Babbage, Featured, Gary Smith, Lovelace test, Mary Somerville, Selmer Bringsjord, Turing Test}

Lovelace: The Programmer Who Spooked Alan Turing

_{Ada Lovelace understood her mentor Charles Babbage’s plans for his new Analytical Engine and was better than he at explaining what it could do} _{News

May 19, 2020

9

Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics, Programming}

Turing thought that computers could be got to think. Thus he had to address Lovelace’s objection from a century earlier, that they could not be creative.

Is Moore’s Law Over?

_{Rapid increase in computing power may become a thing of the past} _{News

March 6, 2020

5

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Programming}

If Moore’s Law fails, AI may settle in as a part of our lives like the automobile but it will not really be the Ruler of All except for those who choose that lifestyle. Even so, a belief that we will, for example, merge with computers by 2045 (the Singularity) is perhaps immune to the march of mere events. Entire arts and entertainment industries depend on the expression of such beliefs.

Which Career-Limiting Data Mistake Are YOU Most at Risk For?

_{Award-winning data science author Gary Smith says the odds depend on your relationship to the data} _{News

February 23, 2020

6

Business and Finance, Work}

Dr. Smith thinks that the most dangerous error is putting data before theory. Many data-mining algorithms that are now being used to screen job applicants, price car insurance, approve loan applications, and determine prison sentences have significant errors and biases that are not due to programmer mistakes and biases, but to a misplaced belief in data-mining.