Author: Gary Smith | Page 4

Black and white computer keyboard keys close-up. Concept of unstructured big data that need to be sorted ready to be consumed by machine learning model for deep learning.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
December 19, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence

Tagged
Andrew Gelman, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Featured, GPT-3 limitations, LaMDA (claims for understanding), Large Language Models (LLMs), Yann LeCun}

Large Learning Models Are An Unfortunate Detour in AI

_{Gary Smith: Even though LLMs have no way of assessing the truth or falsity of the text they generate, the responses sound convincing} _{Gary Smith
December 19, 2022

9

Artificial Intelligence}

For decades, computer scientists have struggled to construct systems possessing artificial general intelligence (AGI) that rivals the human brain—including the ability to use analogies, take into account context, and understand cause-and-effect. Marvin Minsky (1927–2016) was hardly alone in his overly optimistic 1970 prediction that, “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” AGI turned out to be immensely more difficult than imagined and researchers turned their attention to bite-size projects that were doable (and profitable). Recently, large language models (LLMs) — most notably OpenAI’s GPT-3 — have fueled a resurgence of hope that AGI is almost here. GPT-3 was trained by breaking 450 gigabytes of text data into Read More ›

Bitcoin cryptocurrency, virtual money concept

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
November 16, 2022

Categorized
Economics

Tagged
Featured, Paul Krugman}

Has the Bitcoin Supply of Greater Fools Finally Been Exhausted?

_{It’s a bubble fueled by babble} _{Gary Smith
November 16, 2022

6

Economics}

The Declaration of Bitcoin’s Independence, endorsed by numerous celebrities, states that, We hold these truths to be self-evident. We have been cyclically betrayed, lied to, stolen from, extorted from, taxed, monopolized, spied on, inspected, assessed, authorized, registered, deceived, and reformed. We have been economically disarmed, disabled, held hostage, impoverished, enervated, exhausted, and enslaved. And then there was bitcoin. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are, in reality, not useful alternatives to cash, checking accounts, debit cards, credit cards, and the other components of the financial system that powers the economies of developed countries. Blockchain technology is slow, expensive, and environmentally unfriendly. In 2021, Cambridge University researchers estimated that bitcoin blockchains consume as much electricity as the entire country of Argentina, with only Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
November 8, 2022

Categorized
Probability, Sports

Tagged
Featured, Major League Baseball and probability}

This Time, Houston Was Blessed More by Luck Than by Stolen Signs

_{The victory parade over, let’s look at whether luck had more to do with the Astros’ success than Astro fans want to admit} _{Gary Smith
November 8, 2022

6

Probability, Sports}

The Houston Astros are the 2022 Major League Baseball (MLB) World Champion — this time, as far as we know, without relying on electronically stolen pitching signs sent to batters by banging trashcan lids or using buzzers hidden under uniforms. Now that the champagne has popped and the victory parade has been held, let’s consider the fact that maybe, just maybe, luck had more to do with the Astros’ success than Astro fans want to admit. Athletes and fans want to believe that the team that wins the World Series, Super Bowl, or any other championship is the best team that year. The reality is that in every sport — some more than others — outcomes are influenced by good Read More ›

Teenage boy doing homework using computer sitting by desk in room alone

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 31, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Education

Tagged
Featured}

What Does AI in Education Mean for Critical Thinking Skills?

_{Students, as reported at Motherboard, are increasingly using GPT-3 and other text-generator programs to write essays for them} _{Gary Smith
October 31, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Education}

The COVID pandemic pushed a lot of school coursework to the internet, with an increased reliance on true/false and multiple-choice tests that can be taken online and graded quickly and conveniently. Not surprisingly, once questions went online, so did answers, with several companies posting (for a fee) solutions for students who would rather Google answers than watch Zoomed lectures. To fit into a true/false or multiple-choice format, the questions are generally little more than a recitation of definitions, facts, and calculations. Here, for example, are three statistics questions I found at a question/answer site: Question: True or false: A group of subjects selected from the group of all subjects under study is called a sample. Answer: True Question: You are Read More ›

Stock Trader Sleeping At Multiple Computer's Desk

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
October 17, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Alan Sokal, Black box algorithms (in decision-making), Featured, Lemonade insurance company, Principal components regression}

More Hard Math Does Not Necessarily Mean More Useful Solutions

_{It is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance} _{Gary Smith
October 17, 2022

7

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

Math is said to be the language of science in that most (but definitely not all) scientific models of the world involve mathematical equations. The Pythagorean theorem, the normal distribution, Einstein’s energy-mass equivalence, Newton’s second law of motion, Newton’s universal law of gravitation, Planck’s equation. How could any of these remarkable models be expressed without math? Unfortunately, it is sometimes tempting to overemphasize the math and underemphasize the relevance. The brilliance of the models listed above lies not in mathematical pyrotechnics but, if anything, in their breath-taking simplicity. Useful models help us understand the world and make reliable predictions. Math for the sake of math does neither. Examples of mindless math are legion. I will give three very different examples. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
Date
October 4, 2022

Categorized
Economics, Education, Peer Review

Tagged
J. Robert Oppenheimer, Principal components regression, Stepwise regression}

The Hyper-Specialization of University Researchers

_{So many papers are published today in increasingly narrow specialties that, if there is still a big picture, hardly anyone can see it} _{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
October 4, 2022

5

Economics, Education, Peer Review}

The Bible warns that, “Of making many books there is no end; and much study is a weariness of the flesh.” Nowadays, the endless making of books is dwarfed by the relentless firehose of academic research papers. A 2010 study published in the British Medical Journal reported that the U.S. National Library of Medicine includes 113,976 papers on echocardiography — which would weary the flesh of any newly credentialed doctor specializing in echocardiography: We assumed that he or she could read five papers an hour (one every 10 minutes, followed by a break of 10 minutes) for eight hours a day, five days a week, and 50 weeks a year; this gives a capacity of 10000 papers in one year. Read More ›

Groups of people are connected by lines. Interdependence correlation in workflow. Interacting and joining forces with other teams. Interact to complete tasks. Formation of a more complex community.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
September 19, 2022

Categorized
Mathematics, Probability

Tagged
Featured, HARKing, spurious correlations (in Big Data), Spurious Correlations (website), Stepwise regression}

Step Away From Stepwise Regression (and Other Data Mining)

_{Stepwise regression, which is making a comeback, is just another form of HARKing — Hypothesizing After the Results are Known} _{Gary Smith
September 19, 2022

6

Mathematics, Probability}

There is a strong correlation between the number of lawyers in Nevada and the number of people who died after tripping over their own two feet. There are similarly impressive correlations between U.S. crude oil imports and the per capita consumption of chicken — and the number of letters in the winning word in the Scripps National Spelling Bee and the number if people killed by venomous spiders. If you find these amusing (as I do), there are many more at the website Spurious Correlations. These silly statistical relationships are intended to demonstrate that correlation is not causation. But no matter how often or how loudly statisticians shout that warning, many people do not hear it. When there is a Read More ›

Set of red glass dice isolated on black background. 3d rendering - illustration.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
September 5, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics

Tagged
Featured, James Tobin, John Maynard Keynes}

Don’t Worship Math: Numbers Don’t Equal Insight

_{The unwarranted assumption that investing in stocks is like rolling dice has led to some erroneous conclusions and extraordinarily conservative advice} _{Gary Smith
September 5, 2022

7

Business and Finance, Economics, Mathematics}

My mentor, James Tobin, considered studying mathematics or law as a Harvard undergraduate but later explained that I studied economics and made it my career for two reasons. The subject was and is intellectually fascinating and challenging, particularly to someone with taste and talent for theoretical reasoning and quantitative analysis. At the same time it offered the hope, as it still does, that improved understanding could better the lot of mankind. I was an undergraduate math major (at Harvey Mudd, not Harvard) and chose economics for the much the same reasons. Mathematical theories and empirical data can be used to help us understand and improve the world. For example, during the Great Depression in the 1930s, governments everywhere had so Read More ›

Cyborg hologram watching a subway interior 3D rendering

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 19, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Censorship, China, Surveillance

Tagged
China and crime prediction algorithms, Edward Snowden, Featured, George Orwell on total surveillance}

Big Brother Is Watching You (And Trying to Read Your Mind)

_{Chinese researchers now claim to have developed technology that can read our minds} _{Gary Smith
July 19, 2022

6

Artificial Intelligence, Censorship, China, Surveillance}

One of the most popular story lines in the widely acclaimed television show The Good Wife (2009–2016) is when National Security Agency (NSA) techies entertain themselves by eavesdropping on the heroine’s personal life. It clearly resonated with viewers and reinforced the fears of many that the NSA might be listening to their conversations. Indeed, they might be. In 2013 James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, was asked by U.S. Senator Ron Wyden about whether NSA collects “any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of millions of Americans.” Clapper answered, under oath, “No sir, not wittingly.” Clapper had been informed the day before that he would be asked this question and he was offered an opportunity the day Read More ›

Chinese fortune cookies. Cookies with empty blank inside for prediction words. Blue background.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 15, 2022

Categorized
Probability, Sports

Tagged
Baseball and luck, Featured}

We Love Baseball Because of — Not Despite — Lady Luck

_{With a big game approaching, emotions run high so let’s heed some statistical realities} _{Gary Smith
July 15, 2022

5

Probability, Sports}

As we approach the MLB All-Star Game in Los Angeles on July 19, we can be confident of one thing — most current league leaders will not do as well after the break as they did before it. Baseball broadcaster and National Sportswriter of the Year Peter Gammons was among the first to notice this. He wrote in 1989 that, of those baseball players who hit more than 20 home runs before the All-Star break, 90 percent pegged fewer than 20 after the break. Gammons concluded that there was a “second-half power outage,” perhaps because the sluggers got nervous about the possibility of breaking a home run record. More recently, sports forecaster Max Kaplan made a similar observation, which he Read More ›

Big eye watching a group of people 3D rendering

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 11, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics

Tagged
Featured, Karl Marx, Thomas Malthus}

AI Would Run the World Better Than Humans, Google Research Claims

_{Don’t believe the headlines: Google’s inhouse game does not show that AI is ready to rule the world} _{Gary Smith
July 11, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Economics}

Sixty years ago, conservative provocateur William F. Buckley wrote, “I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the telephone directory, than by the Harvard University faculty.” Buckley was a Yale man, but his barb was not intended to compare Harvard to Yale. He later explained: Not, heaven knows, because I hold lightly the brainpower or knowledge or generosity or even the affability of the Harvard faculty: but because I greatly fear intellectual arrogance, and that is a distinguishing characteristic of the university which refuses to accept any common premise. Now may be the time to update Buckley’s incendiary remarks: I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the telephone directory, than by a black Read More ›

policewoman holding arrested young woman while her partner talking on portable radio

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
July 6, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Crime, Probability

Tagged
China and crime prediction algorithms, Featured, Minority Report (film)}

Can AI Really Predict Crime a Week in Advance? That’s the Claim.

_{University of Chicago data scientists claim 90% accuracy for their algorithm using past data — but it’s hard to evaluate} _{Gary Smith
July 6, 2022

5

Artificial Intelligence, Crime, Probability}

The University of Chicago recently announced to great fanfare that, Data and social scientists from the University of Chicago have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. The model can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy. University of Chicago Medical Center, “Algorithm Predicts Crime a Week in Advance, but Reveals Bias in Police Response” at Newswise (June 28, 2022) Many thought immediately of the 2002 movie Minority Report, in which three psychics (“precogs”) visualize murders before they occur, thereby allowing special PreCrime police to arrest would-be assailants before they can commit them. Have these University of Chicago researchers made Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
June 13, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Law, Work

Tagged
Featured, GPT-3 limitations, Herbert Simon on AI capabilities, Marvin Minsky on AI capabilities}

AI: Is Thinking Humanly More Important Than Acting Rationally?

_{I have documented many examples of GPT-3 AI’s failure to distinguish meaningful from meaningless correlations — and invite readers to contribute their own} _{Gary Smith
June 13, 2022

6

Artificial Intelligence, Business and Finance, Law, Work}

The potential power of artificial intelligence (AI) has been touted for more than 60 years though a generally accepted definition is elusive. AI has often been defined in terms of human-like capabilities. In 1960, for example, AI pioneer Herbert Simon, an economics Nobel laureate and Turing Award winner, predicted that “machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.” In 1970 Marvin Minsky, also a Turing Award winner, said that, “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” More recently, in 2015, Mark Zuckerberg said that, “One of our goals for the next five to 10 years is to basically get better Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
May 25, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance, Economics, Work

Tagged
Ezra Klein, Featured, James Tobin}

Some Economic Models are Alluring, Others are Useful

_{In some markets, prices are affected by market forces and in others, like the job market, they are not} _{Gary Smith
May 25, 2022

6

Business and Finance, Economics, Work}

Statistician George Box is credited with the aphorism, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Unfortunately, as the brilliant economist Ed Leamer, once quipped, “Economists are like artists. They tend to fall in love with their models.” A large part of the art of economics is distinguishing between attractive models and useful models. The traditional bedrock of economics is the demand-and-supply model. Every introductory economics course explains how demand and supply are related to price and how the equilibrium price is where demand is equal to supply. This can be a very useful model for predicting how changes in demand and supply affect prices and trades — if we make the tempting assumption that the market price is equal Read More ›

Positive girl resting on the couch with robot

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
May 11, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence, Technocracy

Tagged
Black box algorithms (in decision-making), Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Gary Smith (on GPT-3), LaMDA, Large Language Models (LLMs), Smith test, Turing Test}

Turing Tests Are Terribly Misleading

_{Black box algorithms are now being trusted to approve loans, price insurance, screen job applicants, trade stocks, determine prison sentences, and much more. Is that wise?} _{Gary Smith
May 11, 2022

8

Artificial Intelligence, Technocracy}

In 1950 Alan Turing proposed that the question, “Can machines think?,” be replaced by a test of how well a computer plays the “imitation game.” A man and woman go into separate rooms and respond with typewritten answers to questions that are intended to identify the players, each of whom is trying to persuade the interrogators that they are the other person. Turing proposed that a computer take the part of one of the players and the experiment be deemed a success if the interrogators are no more likely to make a correct identification. There are other versions of the game, some of which were suggested by Turing. The standard Turing test today involves a human and a computer and Read More ›

Inflation, dollar hyperinflation with black background. One dollar bill is sprayed in the hand of a man on a black background. The concept of decreasing purchasing power, inflation.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
May 3, 2022

Categorized
Economics

Tagged
Featured, Hyperinflation (Germany post WWI)}

Will Higher Prices Disarm Russia? It’s Complicated…

_{The effects of hyperinflation are subtle, but very real} _{Gary Smith
May 3, 2022

6

Economics}

The annual rate of consumer price inflation in Russia was 9% in February and 17% in March. For producer prices, the March number was 27%. Is Russia headed for hyperinflation, with prices increasing at triple-digit rates or more? I don’t know, but it is worth remembering what happens during hyperinflations. Many people believe that higher prices make everyone worse off. This is not true. Buyers pay more, but sellers receive more. One person’s higher price is another’s higher income. If all prices and incomes were to increase by the same amount — say 10 percent — everyone’s real, inflation-adjusted income would be unchanged. The true costs of inflation are more subtle. In practice, within every inflation, some prices increase more Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
March 21, 2022

Categorized
Artificial Intelligence

Tagged
Artificial Intelligence, Ernest Davis, Gary Marcus, Google, GPT-3, LaMDA, Mechanical Turk, Nigel Richards, OpenAI}

The AI Illusion – State-of-the-Art Chatbots Aren’t What They Seem

_{GPT-3 is very much like a performance by a good magician} _{Gary Smith
March 21, 2022

11

Artificial Intelligence}

Artificial intelligence is an oxymoron. Despite all the incredible things computers can do, they are still not intelligent in any meaningful sense of the word. Decades ago, AI researchers largely abandoned their quest to build computers that mimic our wondrously flexible human intelligence and instead created algorithms that were useful (i.e., profitable). Despite this understandable detour, some AI enthusiasts market their creations as genuinely intelligent. For example, a few months ago, Blaise Aguera y Arcas, the head of Google’s AI group in Seattle, argued that “statistics do amount to understanding.” As evidence, he cites a few exchanges with Google’s LaMDA chatbot. The examples were impressively coherent but they are still what Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis characterize as “a fluent spouter of bullshit” because computer algorithms Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
March 16, 2022

Categorized
Business and Finance

Tagged
Greater Fool Theory, Investment}

In It For the Money: The Trump Coin Sham

_{Beware deceitful memorabilia hawkers who sell cheap mementos, hoping you'll be the fool that helps make them rich} _{Gary Smith
March 16, 2022

6

Business and Finance}

Americans have a seemingly insatiable demand for memorabilia, no matter how cheaply it is made or how cheesy it looks. Some are preparing for their nostalgic years; some think they are making smart investments in collectibles that become more valuable as time passes. The problem with “investing” in collectibles is that an investment’s intrinsic value depends on how much income it generates. Stocks, bonds, rental properties, and profitable businesses all have intrinsic value. Mementos don’t. They rely on the Greater Fool Theory. If fools don’t appear, memento collectors are stuck with cheap and cheesy trinkets. This sobering reality does little to discourage people intoxicated by dreams of riches. For example, the White House Gift Shop sells a large collection of Read More ›

Technical price graph and indicator, red and green candlestick chart on blue theme screen, market volatility, up and down trend. Stock trading, crypto currency background.

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
February 28, 2022

Categorized
Economics

Tagged
data, Data analysis, Gary Smith, Inflation, Jay Cordes, money, Wall Street Journal}

Detecting BS Research: If It Seems Too Good to be True…

_{A recent Wall Street Journal article shows a near-perfect link between inflation and money. But a link that near-perfect raises suspicions} _{Gary Smith
February 28, 2022

4

Economics}

Two Johns Hopkins economists recently wrote a Wall Street Journal opinion piece titled, “Jerome Powell Is Wrong. Printing Money Causes Inflation.” Their argument is that Federal Reserve chair Powell is mistaken in his assertions that there is not a close relationship between money and inflation. As evidence, they offer the chart below, showing that the rate of inflation can be predicted almost perfectly from the rate of increase of M2, a broad measure of money. The authors explain: The theory rests on a simple identity, the equation of exchange, which demonstrates the link between the money supply and inflation: MV=Py, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money (the speed at which it circulates relative to total spending), P Read More ›

^{Type
post

Gary Smith
Date
February 23, 2022

Categorized
Peer Review, Science

Tagged
Statistical significance}

The Brady Bunch – Why Research Should Be Guided By Common Sense

_{Do our names really influence our choice in profession or the way our lives play out?} _{Gary Smith
February 23, 2022

5

Peer Review, Science}

The credibility of scientific research is undermined by scientists torturing and mining data in a tenacious search for media-friendly results. Media-friendly findings tend to be entertaining, provocative, and surprising, and there is a good reason why they are surprising – they are wrong. Here is an example from BMJ, a top-tier medical journal. A paper with the alluring title, “The Brady Bunch?,” investigated “nominative determinism,” the idea that our surnames influence our choice of professions. With my name being Smith, I might have been predestined to choose to be a blacksmith or silversmith. That didn’t happen, but a newspaper article did find “a dermatologist called Rash, a rheumatologist named Knee, and a psychiatrist named Couch.” The authors of the BMJ Read More ›